库克群岛东北二级热带气旋“纳特”(06F/10P.Nat) 南及西南太平洋

W ygsj24 2024-02-03 04:00:00 2426

最新回复 (32)
  • ygsj24 W 2024-02-09 07:25:00
    0 引用 31
    ABPW10 PGTW 082300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
    PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082300Z-090600ZFEB2024//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZFEB2024//
    REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352ZFEB2024//
    REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZFEB2024//
    NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS. REF C IS A 
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
          (1) AT 08FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
    NEAR 19.4S 150.0W, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
    HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
    KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 080900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
    SYSTEM.
          (2) AT 08FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WAS LOCATED 
    NEAR 18.2S 163.4W, APPROXIMATELY 272 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, AND 
    HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
    40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 081500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON 
    THIS SYSTEM.
          (3) AT 08FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 
    NEAR 15.6S 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, 
    VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE 
    PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
    KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS33 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER 
    DETAILS.
          (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 10P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
    19.4S 147.5W, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. 
    THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, 
    GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE 
    CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WARM 
    CORE ASSYMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE 
    SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
    TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. A 081921Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS 
    REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
    LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
    TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING 
    ADVECTED OVER THE CIRCULATION, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND HIGH 
    (GREATER THAN 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
    AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 10P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A 
    BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
    ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
    TO BE NEAR 996 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
    WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO 
    LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION 
    INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
    NNNN

  • ygsj24 W 2024-02-10 13:50:00
    0 引用 32
    ABPW10 PGTW 100600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
    PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZFEB2024//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZFEB2024//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
          (1) AT 10FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 
    NEAR 17.1S 168.4E, APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, AND 
    HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
    SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
          (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 10P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
    19.4S 147.5W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
          (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
    NNNN

    最后于 2024-02-10 16:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • ygsj24 W 2024-02-10 19:55:00
    0 引用 33

    最后于 2024-02-18 20:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
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