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全球热带气旋监测公报
南印度洋热带风暴“乔恩古”生成
时 间：16日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬15.7度、东经65.6度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：998百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约990公里的洋面上
变化过程：“乔恩古”生成并加强到8级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月16日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 160643 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/16 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 65.7 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 295 SW: 100 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/16 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 435 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/17 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 315 SW: 350 NW: 480 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 260 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 425 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 250 NW: 250 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 295 SW: 370 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 72H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 535 SE: 260 SW: 360 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95 120H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 98.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 315 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED STRONG NEAR THE CENTER, WITH PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR INCREASE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN'S CURVATURE, WITH A CURVED BAND. THIS TREND IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE LATE-NIGHT MICROWAVE DATA, WHERE A BROAD EYE SEEMS TO BE APPEARING IN 89GHZ. HOWEVER, 0442Z PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOWED ONLY 30KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN WALL. THIS ALSO SEEMED TO BE CONFIRMED BY SHIP EUMDE31'S OBSERVATIONS (LESS THAN 30MN SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER) WITH 32KT MAXIMUM WIND AND 998HPA MINIMUM PRESSURE. AT 06Z THE INTENSITY WAS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 40KT. IN ANY CASE, IN VIEW OF THE LATEST DATA, A PHASE OF SUSTAINED OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD JUST BE STARTING. DJOUNGOU HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY IN A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS TAKEN OVER BY AN UPPER STEERING FLOW AND ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, DRIVEN BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD SOUTH EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS TRACK COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLOWED DOWN AT LONGER RANGE AND IS STILL A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IFS AND GFS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE IN ALL QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. IN VIEW OF THE RECENT TREND, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DJOUNGOU SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW, SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS SHOULD BE COMBINED WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE GRADUALLY WORSENING TODAY, THEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM TONIGHT, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
最后于 2024-02-16 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 65.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 65.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.4S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.6S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.4S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.8S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.7S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 28.2S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 31.2S 99.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 66.0E. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 65.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 536 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM THAT HAS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN AS IT DEVELOPED A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED BANDING EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FIMP. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE NER EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY A POOL OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DOWNSTREAM WILL FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 90KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). CONCURRENTLY, AS THE CYCLONE DRIFTS DEEPER INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, INCREASING VWS (30KTS+) WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID EROSION AND DECAY WITH TC DJOUNGOU UNCHAINED AND DECAPITATED FROM ITS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 170NM BY TAU 72; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ITS CURRENT SLOW FORWARD MOTION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHT AND SPREAD OUT EVENLY TO 335NM; HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER AMONG THE MEMBERS WITH NVGM AND AFUM SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE MAIN PACK. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS HELD BACK SLIGHTLY SHORTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE FORWARD OUTLIERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-16 16:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 161306 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/16 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 66.1 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/17 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 285 SW: 345 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/02/17 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 240 SW: 350 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 215 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 36H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 295 SW: 345 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 305 SW: 390 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 92.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140 120H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 96.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 230 NW: 260 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SHARP CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE CDO REMAINS MARKED BY FAIRLY COLD SUMMITS. TODAY'S MICROWAVE DATA (0904Z AMSR2 AND 1138Z SSMIS) SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF AN ILL-DEFINED EYE IN 89GHZ. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF PARTICULARLY RELIABLE OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45KT AT 12Z. DJOUNGOU HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY IN A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS TAKEN OVER BY AN UPPER STEERING FLOW AND ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, DRIVEN BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD SOUTH EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS TRACK COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IFS AND GFS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE IN ALL QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DJOUNGOU SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW, SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS SHOULD BE COMBINED WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE GRADUALLY WORSENING TODAY, THEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM TONIGHT, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
最后于 2024-02-16 21:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 161841 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/16 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 66.6 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 295 SW: 390 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/17 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 60H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 94.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100 120H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 97.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTER CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED.THE GEOGRAPHIC EXTENSION OF THE COLDEST SUMMETS AROUND THE CENTER HAS STRENGTHENED. AN EYE IS BEGINNING TO BE SEEN ON THE LATEST INFRA-RED IMAGES AND ON THE 37 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 1653Z. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONFIGURATION, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50KT AT 18Z AND DJOUNGOU IS RECLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN. DJOUNGOU IS HEADING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DRIVEN BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS CONFIGURATION COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS STILL A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IFS AND GFS, WHICH NEVERTHELESS PROPOSE RELATIVELY CLOSE TRACKS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE IN ALL QUADRANTS, MARKED IN PARTICULAR BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DJOUNGOU COULD THEREFORE BECOME INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW, SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, WITH A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE CLEARLY DETERIORATING FROM TONIGHT, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METRES. NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 66.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 66.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.3S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.4S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.9S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.2S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 28.1S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 67.1E. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 647 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2S 66.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 647 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DJOUNGOU) CONTINUES TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT INNER CORE OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS APPROACHING -90C. A 161637Z GMI COLOR ENHANCED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, AND FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE INNER CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE SUPPORTED BY A WARM SPOT IN THE GOES-IO BD-ENHANCED IMAGE FROM 161745Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A T4.0 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM KNES AND A DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATE OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (0-5 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR, WARM SSTS, RELATIVELY HIGH, OHC AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A 120 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE OVERALL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW, MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PRESENCE OF A SHARP UPSHEAR EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A SLOWER, MORE EASTWARD TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 161500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE PHASE TRANSITION TYPE HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 96 HOURS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND INTENSIFY. AS THE VORTEX EXPANDS, THE STEERING LEVEL WILL GET STEADILY HIGHER, LEADING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL ACCELERATE TC 13S UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE SLOWING ONCE MORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS IT RUNS INTO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LURKING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS LINING UP SUPPORT. THE ONLY THING HOLDING THE SYSTEM BACK AT THE MOMENT IS A BIT OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR, BUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ONCE THE CONVECTION CAN BEGIN TO WRAP UPSHEAR, THE SYSTEM WILL EMBARK UPON A PERIOD OF RI, WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BUT THE WINDOW FOR RI IS BRIEF AS SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE BEGINNING AT TAU 48, INCREASING FURTHER TO NEAR 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BRINGING WITH IT A SURGE IN VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE HIGH VWS AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONSPIRE TO DECAPITATE AND SMOTHER TC 13S BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN ITS WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS AND REMAIN OVER MARGINAL (25-26C) WATERS DURING THIS TIME, IT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) BEGINNING BY TAU 72 AND POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 60. TRANSITION TO A STORM-STRENGTH SUBTROPICAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED NO LATER THAN TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION, AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH SUCH A WELL-STRUCTURED STEERING PATTERN. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS JUST 150NM BETWEEN THE EGRR, GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MARKING THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE NAVGEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GROUPING. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT, BUT BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT ALONG-TRACK, REACHING UP TO 410NM BETWEEN THE GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE ONLY QUESTION IS BY HOW MUCH. THE SHIPS (GFS) IS THE MOST BEARISH, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT JUST 85 KNOTS, WHILE THE HAFS-A IS THE MOST BULLISH REACHING 135 KNOTS. THE COAMPS-TC, HAFS-A, AND HWRF ALL PEAK THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 115-135 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE RI AIDS ARE TRIGGERED WITH THIS RUN, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST OF RI OF 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THE SHORT RUN TO THE PEAK, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT UNDERGOES STT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-17 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 170015 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/17 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 67.5 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/17 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 325 SW: 360 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 270 SW: 345 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 96.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.0 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTER CONFIGURATION HAS DEVELOPED.AN EYE IS PERCEPTIBLE ON THE 37 GHZ DMSP-F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 2310Z, BUT IT IS LESS SHARP THAN ON PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES AVAILABLE. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS CONFIRMED BY ADT ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT 55KT AT 00Z. DJOUNGOU IS STILL A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION HAS BEGUN. DJOUNGOU IS HEADING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DRIVEN BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS CONFIGURATION COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS STILL A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IFS AND GFS, WHICH NEVERTHELESS PROPOSE RELATIVELY CLOSE TRACKS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE IN ALL QUADRANTS, MARKED IN PARTICULAR BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DJOUNGOU COULD THEREFORE BECOME INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW, SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, WITH A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE CLEARLY DETERIORATING FROM TONIGHT, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METRES. NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
最后于 2024-02-17 09:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”向偏东方向移动
时 间：17日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬16.0度、东经67.5度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：983百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1150公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏东方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月17日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 170638 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/17 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 68.3 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 370 SW: 425 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 85 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/17 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 315 SW: 435 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 305 SW: 465 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 325 SW: 435 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 530 SE: 295 SW: 415 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 60H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 285 SW: 360 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 85 72H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 360 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 120 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 92.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 335 NW: 155 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IT HAS ALSO KEPT DISPLAYING A BEAUTIFUL CIRRUS OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. A 0134Z SMOS PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO 56KT THUS CONFIRMING THE 00UTC INTENSITY ANALYSIS. THE 0421Z AND 0509Z ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH WINDS AROUND 50KT TRANSLATING INTO REAL-LIFE 60KT DUE TO THIS MEASUREMENT'S CLASSIC UNDER-ESTIMATION. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60KT AT 06UTC, IN LINE WITH THESE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THESE ASCAT DATA ALSO CONFIRM A FRANK EASTWARD ACCELERATION : AS THEY WERE AVAILABLE A BIT TOO LATE, THE CENTER'S ESTIMATED LOCATION AT 16.1S/68.3E IS LAGGING TOO MUCH TO THE WEST OF THE REAL LOCATION, WHICH WILL BE CORRECTED NEAR 68.7E AFTERHAND. MOREOVER, THE RMW IS LARGER THAN LAST NIGHTS ESTIMATE, CLOSER TO 20NM THAN 10NM. DJOUNGOU'S MOVEMENT IS ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, DRIVEN BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS COULD TAKE IT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ALL QUADRANTS, MARKED IN PARTICULAR BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON ITS SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. A MORE OR LESS RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOURS. DJOUNGOU COULD THEREFORE REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, WITH A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEAS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES ISLAND : - VERY ROUGH SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
最后于 2024-02-17 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：