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ABIO10 PGTW 121800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z- 131800ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4S 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE A FAIRLY WEAK 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 90S WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10- 15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT TO FINALLY GET MORE OF A CHIMNEY EFFECT GOING IN ITS FAVOR BEYOND TAU 72, AND CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN MORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 14 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 141800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z- 151800ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 66.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SURFACE LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY TAU 72 AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 150042 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2024/02/15 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 64.0 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/15 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95 24H: 2024/02/16 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/16 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/17 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/17 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 215 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 490 SW: 280 NW: 445 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 295 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 455 SW: 175 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0 120H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 95.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW-LEVEL PRECURSOR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO IS NOW BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY RSMC LA REUNION. IN A GENERAL CONTEXT MARKED BY A WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN, AND WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SYSTEM 05-20232024 HAS GRADUALLY GAINED IN DEFINITION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS MORNING, ASCAT-B AND C AT 0431Z AND 0524Z RESPECTIVELY PRESENTED AN ELONGATED, ILL-DEFINED, ASYMMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MEAN WINDS OF AROUND 20KT. CONVECTION CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT A STUDY OF SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY LED TO AN INITIAL CLASSIFICATION OF DVORAK T = 1.0 AROUND 12 UTC. IN THE EVENING, THE PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 1704Z STILL CONFIRMS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MEAN WINDS OF AROUND 20KT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF-CIRCLE, WITH THE LLCC LOCATED AT THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE 1429Z 37GHZ SSMIS F17 SWATH SHOWED A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CORE WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED INTO THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SHORTLY BEFORE THE 00UTC NETWORK, THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CURVED. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A T OF 2.0, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL ANALYSES, CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FOR THE MOMENT, DUE TO A LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA. UNTIL THURSDAY, THE TROPICAL LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST RATHER SLOWLY, DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS TAKEN OVER BY THE GENERAL CIRCULATION AT HIGHER LEVELS AND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PLUNGE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, EXTENDING INTO AN AXIS TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN FOR THE AUSTRALIAN AOR LATE ON MONDAY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH HAVE BEEN HIGHLY DISPERSIVE (CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK) FOR SOME NETWORKS, LEADING TO LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NAO06-20232024 CURRENTLY ENJOYS GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: WARM SURFACE WATERS BETWEEN 28 AND 29AOC, LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EVACUATION CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, IN SPITE OF AN EXCELLENT HUMID SUPPLY CARRIED BY THE MONSOON FLOW, HOWEVER, DESPITE AN EXCELLENT MOISTURE SUPPLY CARRIED BY THE MONSOON FLOW, THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (POLAR SIDE) IS STILL PARTLY LACKING, WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE RATHER MODEST SIZE OF THE WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. HOWEVER, THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM TO THE PROBABLE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A SMALL SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD IMPACT THE METEOR AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THIS STRESS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ON MONDAY, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH-WEST, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES PREDOMINANT AND ENDS UP INJECTING DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - PROGRESSIVELY ROUGHER SEA CONDITIONS FROM TOMORROW, THURSDAY, THEN MORE PRONOUNCED FROM FRIDAY EVENING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. IMPROVING ON SUNDAY.=
最后于 2024-02-15 09:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS21 PGTW 150330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 63.1E TO 16.7S 68.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 64.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN 150134Z SSMIS IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160330Z.// NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 150400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/150400Z-151800ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN 150134Z SSMIS IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-15 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 150622 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2024/02/15 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 64.0 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/16 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/16 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/17 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/17 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 295 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 270 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 425 SW: 205 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 65 120H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 98.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 455 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 240 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF THE 06-20232024 SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED, REMAINING IN A CURVED BAND. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.0+ REMAINS VALID, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 25KT FOR CLASSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. RECENT MICROWAVES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER IMPRECISE, ALTHOUGH IT IS NEVERTHELESS IMPORTANT FOR THE CHOICE OF THE FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE 06-20232024 SYSTEM WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST, DUE TO A LACK OF MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS TAKEN UP BY THE GENERAL CIRCULATION AT HIGHER LEVELS AND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARDS UNDER THE IMPETUS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PRESENT. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS CONFIGURATION COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS GROUPED INTO TWO CLASSES, OF WHICH RSMC HAS MADE A COMPROMISE WITH THE GUIDANCE OF TRACKS LOCATED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. IN THIS CONTEXT, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS MODERATE, DUE IN PARTICULAR TO THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN THE EARLY STAGES. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06-20232024 CURRENTLY ENJOYS SATISFACTORY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND A FINE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EVACUATION CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, DESPITE AN EXCELLENT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, POLAR CONVERGENCE IS STILL LACKING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOUR THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE PROBABLE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A SMALL SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD IMPACT THE METEOR AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS. ON MONDAY, ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SOUTH-WESTERN TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES PREDOMINANT, EVENTUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - PROGRESSIVELY ROUGHER SEA CONDITIONS FROM TOMORROW, THURSDAY, THEN MORE PRONOUNCED FROM FRIDAY EVENING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. IMPROVING ON SUNDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 151215 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2024/02/15 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 64.2 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/16 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/17 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/17 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 230 SW: 335 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45 60H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 370 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 75 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55 72H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 405 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 285 SW: 360 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 100.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 155 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF SYSTEM 06-20232024 HAS EXPANDED. THE T-NUMBER ESTIMATE BY DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS THEREFORE INCREASED FROM 2 TO 2.5-, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 30KT FOR CLASSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AVAILABLE ARE GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES ONLY. THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER IMPRECISE, ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE CHOICE OF THE FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE 06-20232024 SYSTEM WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO A LACK OF MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS CARRIED ALONG BY THE GENERAL CIRCULATION AT HIGHER LEVELS, AND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARDS UNDER THE IMPETUS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PRESENT. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS CONFIGURATION COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE PATTERNS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLASSES. ONE CLASS GROUPS FASTER, MORE NORTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACKS, THE OTHER CLASS GROUPS SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACK. COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE SECOND CLASS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE, NOTABLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S POSITION IN THE EARLY STAGES. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REVISED DOWNWARDS: DUE TO ITS FORECAST TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06-20232024 WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SATISFACTORY FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND A FINE ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, DESPITE AN EXCELLENT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, POLAR CONVERGENCE IS STILL LACKING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, HOWEVER, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOUR STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE PROBABLE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. A SMALL SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD IMPACT THE METEOR AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ON MONDAY, ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SOUTH-WESTERN TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES PREDOMINANT AND EVENTUALLY INJECTS DRY AIR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, GRADUALLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE GRADUALLY WORSENING TODAY, THEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY EVENING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. I=
最后于 2024-02-15 20:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 151925 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/15 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 65.0 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 55 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/16 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 165 36H: 2024/02/17 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 175 48H: 2024/02/17 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 400 SW: 280 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65 60H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 120H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 103.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 110 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED-BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS STRENGTHENED. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES, F17 FROM 1408Z AND GPM FROM 1721Z, SHOW THE FORMATION OF AN EYE AT 37GHZ. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION. DVORACK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS ENABLED US TO INCREASE THE T-NUMBER OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS FROM 2.0 TO 2.5+, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 35KT. IN ADDITION, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1642Z CONFIRMS A WIND OF THE SAME STRENGTH 40MN FROM THE CENTER. THIS INTENSITY CORRESPONDS TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND THE SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE NAMED DJOUNGOU AT 1800Z BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. IN THE SHORT TERM, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DJOUNGOU WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO A LACK OF MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS CARRIED ALONG BY THE GENERAL CIRCULATION AT HIGHER LEVELS, AND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARDS UNDER THE IMPETUS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PRESENT. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS CONFIGURATION COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE PATTERNS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLASSES. ONE CLASS GROUPS FASTER, MORE NORTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACKS, THE OTHER CLASS GROUPS SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACK. COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE SECOND CLASS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE, NOTABLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S POSITION IN THE EARLY STAGES. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO LOWER SHEAR. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SATISFACTORY FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND A FINE ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE MARKED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE PROBABLE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, OR EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. A SMALL SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD IMPACT THE METEOR AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD INHIBIT THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ON MONDAY, ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SOUTH-WESTERN TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES PREDOMINANT AND EVENTUALLY INJECTS DRY AIR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, GRADUALLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: RODRIGUES ISLAND: - SEA STATE GRADUALLY WORSENING TODAY, THEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY EVENING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150221ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.6S 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.8S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.9S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.5S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.0S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.3S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 28.7S 95.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 65.1E. 15FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150330).// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 64.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 660 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS AS COLD AS -90 DEGREES CELSIUS PULSING ON ALL SIDES OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 1718Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 NM. SINCE THAT TIME, A WARM SPOT HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED NEAR THE LLCC IN EIR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON A 1736Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWING 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, AS NOTED, QUICK INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING SINCE THE 1800Z WARNING TIME. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY FORMING A COMPACT INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SHEAR, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS DJOUNGOU TRACKS EASTWARD, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, DJOUNGOU WILL PASS OVER AN EDDY OF LOCALLY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES (IN EXCESS OF 60 KJ PER SQUARE CM) DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO FACILITATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN THE NEAR TERM, AND STATISTICAL RI AIDS SUPPORT THIS WITH 40-60 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF RI DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DJOUNGOU TO TYPHOON INTENSITY (65 KT) IN 24 HOURS AND TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BENEFITING FROM CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE WITH A 130 KT JET STREAK TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT FORCING OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 72 HOURS, VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS DJOUNGOU NEARS THE JET AXIS, AND THE CYCLONE'S ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION ALONG THE JET WILL BRING IT OVER COOLER WATERS, ULTIMATELY LOWER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 120 HOURS, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT DJOUNGOU WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND 96 HOURS, ULTIMATELY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 120 HOURS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE WILL VERTICALLY DECOUPLE AND WHETHER THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FULLY ENTRAIN IT. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD GROWS DRAMATICALLY DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT LEANS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTATION FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-16 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
