最新回复 (43)
-
WTXS31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 68.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 68.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.9S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.5S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.9S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.7S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.5S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 28.3S 95.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 69.6E. 17FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2S 68.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DJOUNGOU) EXHIBITING PERSISTENT, CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 170419Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE CLOSED OFF IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO CENTER OF CIRCULATION. AS NUMERICAL MODELING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AS EVIDENCE BY A PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE THE DRY AIR, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR WITH LOW (0-5KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND EXCEPTIONAL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 170511Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 170630Z CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 170700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST INTERVAL. FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36, THE STEERING INFLUENCE PRESENTED WILL SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM FROM AN EASTWARD (TAU 00) TRACK TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK (TAU 36). DURING THIS TIME, THE TC IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, PEAKING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AT NEAR 110KTS. BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36, HIGH (OVER 30KTS) VWS, DECOUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT, FALLING SST (25C BY TAU 96), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OF THE CORE VORTEX (TAU 48 TO TAU 96) ARE ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE TC IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TC INTENSITY. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 128NM BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONTRIBUTES TO THE ASSESSMENT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE PRESENTS A NOTICEABLE AND UNIFORM DROP IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE JTWC CONSENSUS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING (162100Z). ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE DECREASED PROBABILITY OF RI OCCURRENCE, BUT STILL REMAIN NOTEWORTHY FROM TAU 00 TAO TAU 36 (BETWEEN 50 AND 80 PCT LIKELIHOOD OF RI OCCURRENCE). A 40KTS SPREAD IS OBSERVED AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72 - 96 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72 - 96 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-17 16:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：17日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬16.1度、东经68.3度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：980百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1220公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由8级加强到11级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月17日14时00分）
-
WTIO30 FMEE 171255 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/17 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 70.2 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 425 SW: 445 NW: 405 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 315 SW: 435 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 325 SW: 465 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 370 SW: 435 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 240 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 280 SW: 435 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 60H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SW: 390 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 195 NW: 150 72H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CDO HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED INTO AN EYE PATTERN, WITH AN EYE REMAINING RATHER ELONGATED AND RAGGED FOR THE MOMENT, SURROUNDED BY INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IRREGULAR EYE GIVES A 3H-AVERAGED DT IN EXCESS OF 4.5. THE 1128Z SSMIS-F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE IMPROVED INNER STRUCTURE, BUT WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE RING THAT HAS NOT YET FULLY CLOSED. THE 70KT ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 12UTC IS MAINLY BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS. DJOUNGOU WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW ON TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A MORE OR LESS RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOURS. DJOUNGOU COULD THEREFORE REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEAS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES ISLAND : - AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW (SUNDAY) AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
最后于 2024-02-17 21:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 171834 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/17 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.7 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 425 SW: 445 NW: 405 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/18 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 295 SW: 445 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 285 SW: 400 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75 60H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 150 72H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 93.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS MOSTLY BEEN REPLACED BY A COLD CDO. MICROWAVES, NOTABLY SSMIS F16 AND AMSU METOP C, CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD EYE IN 89GHZ. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF MORE RELIABLE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS DATA (AIDT AND SATCON). DJOUNGOU WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW ON TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEMS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION, WITH STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY TOMMORROW, WITH THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEAS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
-
WTXS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 72.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 72.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.3S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.8S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.8S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.6S 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 28.5S 96.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 73.3E. 17FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 72.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 576 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S HAS UNDERGONE AXISYMMETRIZATION AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WITH A STRONG EYE EMERGING IN THE EIR WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS, MARKING THE ONSET OF FORECASTED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). A 171639Z TROPICS-6 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGER REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY MODERATELY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION, FORMING A SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF VERTICAL TILT DOWNSHEAR TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IS EVIDENT IN THE HIGHER FREQUENCY TROPICS CHANNELS, CONFIRMING THE STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVABLE EYE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY, AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE TROPICS IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 (77-102 KTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS, LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 111 KTS AT 171930Z CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 171930Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF DUE EAST, ALONG THE NER TO THE NORTH, WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO AUSTRALIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED, OTHER THAN A SLIGHT REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL PUSH TC 13S ONTO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE MIDLATITUDES. THROUGH TAU 36, TC 13S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 120 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AT FIRST, BUT AFTER TAU 36 TC 13S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY AND PULLS IN DRY AIR WHICH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AT TAU 36 AND BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAPITATED BY THE STRONG SHEAR AND SMOTHERED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. STT IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 72, BUT POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DUE TO A VERY SIMPLE STEERING MECHANISM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 OF JUST 100 NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. PEAK INTENSITY IN THE GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 110 KNOTS FOR THE SHIPS MODEL, UP TO 135 KNOTS FOR THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE MEAN (CTR1) WITH THE JTWC FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 36. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24, BUT WITH A 20 KT SPREAD THROUGH TO THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-18 10:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 180102 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 73.6 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 18 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 370 SW: 470 NW: 405 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 345 SW: 445 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SW: 380 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 325 SW: 405 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 91.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SW: 285 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 75 60H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 94.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 175 72H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 96.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 220 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AN EYE PATTERN HAS ONCE AGAIN EMERGED, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CLEARLY DEFINED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0. 2038Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THIS TREND, WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE IN 89GHZ AND 37GHZ, CONSISTENT WITH A NEAR-INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HOWEVER, THEY ALSO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A 15MN TILT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE UPPER EYE, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR (AROUND 10KT DEEP SHEAR ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS AT 21Z, AND MORE THAN 30KT FOR THE MID-LEVEL PRODUCT). THIS TILT SEEMS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INFRARED IMAGES. LATER DATA FROM THE 2238Z SSMIS F18 PASS STRENGTHEN THE IDEA OF AN INCREASING SHEAR WITH A LESS SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE IN 89GHZ. IT THEREFORE SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT DJOUNGOU IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY, OR EVEN THAT IT HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED. INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85KT. DJOUNGOU WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW ON TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEMS TO START DECAYING GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THIS TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE WITH THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY, THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEAS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-02-18 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”加强为热带气旋
时 间：18日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬17.4度、东经73.6度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：962百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1720公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由11级加强到14级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东偏南方向快速移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月18日08时00分）
-
WTIO30 FMEE 180631 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 75.9 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 24 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 370 SW: 470 NW: 405 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/18 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 530 SE: 380 SW: 400 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 240 SW: 325 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 165 60H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 96.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 150 72H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH WARMING OF THE EYE PERSISTING SHORTLY AFTER 02UTC. THE SSMIS F17 PASS AT 0056Z SHOWS A SOLID LOW-LAYER STRUCTURE IN 37 GHZ, SLIGHTLY DECENTERED TO THE WEST WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTER, DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASINGLY PRESENT FROM THE WEST (GIVEN AS 25/30 KT MINIMUM BY THE LATEST CIMMS DATA). THIS VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN HALF-CIRCLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST MIMIC TPW2 ANIMATIONS. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THESE STRESSES REMAIN PARTLY UNAFFECTED FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHT TILT BETWEEN THE LOW-LYING CENTER AND THE HIGH-ALTITUDE CENTER; AN IDEA REINFORCED (IN PART) ALSO BY THE HY-2B SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0030Z SUPERIMPOSED ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY (TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE USUAL PARALLAX OVER THE EASTERN BASIN). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A DT OF 5.5+, CLASSIFYING DJOUNGOU AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95KT, IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES BY AMERICAN AGENCIES. DJOUNGOU IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. IT COULD THEN LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO DETERIORATE ON THE BASIS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE DETERIORATION IS SET TO ACCELERATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WEST SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OF INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON MONDAY, BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-02-18 14:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 76.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 76.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.2S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.5S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 27.4S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 29.2S 96.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 30.1S 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 77.3E. 18FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.5S 76.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 717 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DJOUNGOU) EXHIBITING A TIGHTENING SYMMETRIC EYE OF 20NM DIAMETER AND SMOOTH CIRRUS CANOPY ALOFT (168NM DIAMETER). ROBUST SPIRAL BANDING PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH INTERMITTENT OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS THROUGHOUT. A 180406Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURED A SLIGHT OFFSET OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND UPPER LEVEL EYE FEATURE, SHOWING THE EYE FEATURE TO BE 30NM EAST OF THE LLCC AND SUGGESTING AN EASTWARD TILTING VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE HAVING SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15- 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A GOES-IO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 180630Z CIMSS AIDT: 111 KTS AT 180630Z CIMSS DPRINT: 108 KTS AT 180700Z CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 180630Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO AN EASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. IN GENERAL, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE, STARTING WITH A RISE IN VWS (25-30KTS BY TAU 12). SST IS ANTICIPATED TO STEADILY DROP FROM 30C (TAU 00) TO 22C (TAU 72). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO SHARPLY CUT OFF BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ATTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT STARTING NEAR TAU 24. IN SUCH, A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 48 AND BE SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 OF JUST 107 NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, WITH ONLY ONE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER (COAMPS-TC) SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE SLIGHT (5 KTS) RISE FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 12. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUIDANCE INDICATES A RAPID WEAKENING TREND BUT WITH A 30 KT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY TAU 72. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-18 16:50:23 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”向东南方向移动
时 间：18日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬18.4度、东经75.9度
强度等级：强热带气旋
最大风力：15级（48米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：948百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1940公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由11级加强到15级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时45-50公里的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月18日14时00分）