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WTIO30 FMEE 181400 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 78.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 922 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SW: 630 NW: 780 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 280 48 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 315 SW: 415 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 240 SW: 390 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 95.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110 60H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 97.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 185 72H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 99.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=6.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A WARMING OF THE EYE SHORTLY AFTER 06UTC, RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY DT OF 7.0 BETWEEN 08 AND 10 UTC. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT ESTIMATED EARLIER IN THE DAY DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, AS SHOWN BY THE AMSR2 PASS AT 0852Z AND THE SSMIS F18 PASS AT 1108Z. CONSEQUENTLY, IN VIEW OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS AND THE AMERICAN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. DJOUNGOU IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. IT COULD THEN LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SET TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TAU . THE DETERIORATION IS SET TO ACCELERATE WITH A MARKED DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OF INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON MONDAY, BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-02-18 22:20:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 181834 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 80.9 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 28 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 445 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 555 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 175 48H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65 60H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 106.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=6.0- CI=6.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED SOLID UNTIL 16UTC, THEN BEGAN TO DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND COLDER. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS VERY INTENSE IN ALL QUADRANTS, A SIGN THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL RESISTING WIND SHEAR DUE TO ITS RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 110KT, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CI INERTIA AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED SINCE 12UTC. DJOUNGOU'S MOVEMENT KEEPS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE PRESENT FORECAST HAS A BIT ACCELERATED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ONES, WHICH NOW IMPLIES THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE 18UTC. FROM NOW ON, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SET TO DETERIORATE DUE TO DECREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON MONDAY, BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 81.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 29 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 81.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.2S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 28.1S 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 30.3S 98.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 30.8S 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 82.3E. 18FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.6S 81.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1000 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 56 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DJOUNGOU) IS NOW RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AFTER PEAKING ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO. REANALYSIS OF THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) RAW DATA OUTPUTS WHICH REACHED AS HIGH AS T6.8, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED BETWEEN 180900Z AND 181000Z, BETWEEN 130 AND 135 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME, THE EYE HAS QUICKLY FILLED IN AND IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN FAIRLY COLD IN THE EIR AND AN 181628Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL- DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE IMPACT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WAS ALREADY EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 181304Z, WHICH SHOWED A PRONOUNCED TILT BETWEEN THE 36GHZ AND 89GHZ EYE FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF THE AGENCY FIXES, WHICH WERE PLACED USING THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES WITH AN EVIDENT EYE FEATURE, AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES NOTED BELOW. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS VERY RAPIDLY SHIFTED FROM FAVORABLE TO HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH HIGH VWS BEING THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE FACTOR. SSTS REMAIN WARM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD, INTO THE BASE OF A 130 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS RACING SOUTHEASTWARD AT ALMOST 30 KNOTS IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A STR TO THE EAST AND A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND A DEEP, MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS FMEE: T6.5 - 127 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 125 KTS AT 181307Z CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 181800Z CIMSS AIDT: 116 KTS AT 181800Z CIMSS DPRINT: 117 KTS AT 181800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: VERY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP UP THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE LLCC. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, OTHER THAN A TRUNCATION TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE FINAL PHASE TRANSITION HAS BEEN CHANGED TO EXTRATROPICAL WITH THIS FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER PEAKING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 130 KNOTS ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO, TC 13S HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SUCCUMBS TO PERSISTENT AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS QUITE STRAIGHT FORWARD, AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SLIGHT SLOW DOWN AND SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING LEVEL SHIFTS LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WHERE THE STEERING GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER. WITH THE SHEAR HAVING NOW SUCCESSFULLY PENETRATED TO THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE VORTEX IS COMPLETELY TORN ASUNDER. IN FACT THE DECAPITATION INDEX (DCAP) MODEL SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, BOTH THE HAFS-A AND HWRF MODEL CROSS- SECTIONS SHOW THE PROCESS VERY WELL, WITH ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE LOW- LEVEL VORTEX DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36, COMPLETELY SMOTHERED BY A DEEP LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM 800MB ALL THE WAY UP TO 300MB. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) SHORTLY BUT THIS PHASE OF ITS LIFE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AND IT WILL NEVER ACTUALLY COMPLETE STT. INSTEAD, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT MOVES INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT JET MAX AND EMBEDS ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 48 AND COULD POTENTIALLY WRAP UP 12 HOURS EARLIER. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SHARP AND RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE ENVELOPE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 190046 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 83.0 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 28 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 94.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 270 SW: 325 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 101.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 345 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 155 48H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 105.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0- CI=6.0- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND FINALLY DISAPPEARED FROM 20UTC, WITH AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL CLOUD MASS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, DESPITE STILL INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE IMPACT OF SHEAR IS ALSO VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 1945Z AND SSMIS-F18 2227Z, SHOWING INCREASING EROSION OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND A BROADER INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY IS THUS LOWERED TO 100KT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA AND THE LOWER INTENSITY GIVEN BY AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. DJOUNGOU WILL KEEP ITS FAST SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MONDAY, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE PRESENT FORECAST HAS IT LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THIS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE 18UTC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GETTING WORSE DUE TO DECREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR FAVOURING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-02-19 09:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”向东南方向移动
时 间：19日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬23.2度、东经83.0度
强度等级：强热带气旋
最大风力：16级（52米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）
中心气压：943百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约2650公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由14级加强到16级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时50-55公里的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度快速减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月19日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 190642 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 85.5 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 30 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 951 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75 24H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65 36H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0 CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, WITH A CLEAR WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW DRY AIR GAINING OVER THE CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (ANALYZED AT 00UTC AT 31KT BY CIMSS). THE CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BE EXPOSED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0047 CLEARLY SHOWS THIS DISSYMMETRY IN CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN REDUCED TO 90KT, IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE. DJOUNGOU IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TOMORROW AS IT WEAKENS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR IT TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY THIS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE 18UTC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WEAKENS AND THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENS, ENCOURAGING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS EVENING BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-02-19 15:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 85.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 28 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 85.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 28.6S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 31.3S 98.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 32.9S 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 87.0E. 19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.2S 85.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DJOUNGOU) EXHIBITING A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING STRUCTURE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, SHOWING THE TC VORTEX TO BE TILTED BUT STILL PROVIDING NECESSARY OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TC HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM, REMOVING NECESSARY WARM WATER INTAKE AT THE SURFACE. WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE BEING THE ONLY SUPPORTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR FOR SUSTAINMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS UNFAVORABLE OVERALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 190600Z GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 91 KTS AT 190340Z CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 190715Z CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 190715Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36, FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLAY, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY FALL AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 12, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL PRIOR TO TAU 36. A MODERATE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ELONGATION OF THE LLCC ALLUDE THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION HAS COMMENCED. NEAR TAU 12, NUMERICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHARPLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINES, REMOVING THE LAST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL ELEMENT SUPPORTING SUSTAINMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST INTERVAL (TAU 00 TO TAU 36). A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 119NM (TAU 36) AND INTENSITY SPREAD OF 15KTS (TAU 36) CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF HIGH. ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RAPID DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST INTERVAL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-19 16:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“乔恩古”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：19日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“乔恩古”，DJOUNGOU
中心位置：南纬25.1度、东经85.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：951百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约2920公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“乔恩古”由15级减弱到14级
预报结论：“乔恩古”将以每小时50公里左右的速度向东偏南方向快速移动，强度快速减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月19日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 191303 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20232024 1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DJOUNGOU) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 88.2 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 30 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 101.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 165 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.5 CI=4.5 IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU HAS DEFINITIVELY LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR (30KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS), A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS THEREFORE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION DESPITE EVNTS STILL AT 80KT. DJOUNGOU WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TOMORROW AS IT WEAKENS. DJOUNGOU WILL QUIT RMSC AEREA OF RESPONSABILITY IN THE FEW NEXT HOURS. DJOUNGOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND. LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.=
最后于 2024-02-19 21:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
