(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.4S 41.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091131Z ATMS
88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS
AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 1007.0 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION
AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

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WTIO24 FMEE 100620

SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VII

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2024

AT 0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

 

WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

 

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 1005 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 39.9 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

 

THREAT AREAS:

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT.

 

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

 

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2024/03/10 AT 18 UTC:

20.3 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 95 NM

34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

 

24H, VALID 2024/03/11 AT 06 UTC:

20.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM

34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM

 

OTHER INFORMATION:

NIL=

WTXS21 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4S 39.5E TO 21.3S 35.2E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z INDICATES 
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E. THE SYSTEM IS 
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED 
LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE 
EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110900Z.//
NNNN

 

WTXS21 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852Z MAR 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW
100900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4S 39.5E TO 21.3S 35.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED
LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE
EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E.//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 101233

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20232024

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8

 

2.A POSITION 2024/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.8 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

 

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

 

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

 

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 75

 

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2024/03/11 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

 

24H: 2024/03/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 75

 

36H: 2024/03/12 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 85

34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 55

48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

 

48H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

 

60H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 0

 

72H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

 

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

96H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 270

34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 140

48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

 

120H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55

48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40

 

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=2.5

 

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED

SIGNIFICANTLY. A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND HALF A TURN FORMED. IN

ADDITION, A PARTIAL CONVECTIVE CORE HAS BEGUN TO FORM, ALTHOUGH STILL

OPEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE, AS EVIDENCED BY THE 1049Z AMSR-2 IMAGE. THESE

ELEMENTS SHOW THAT NAMING STAGE IS PROBABLY VERY CLOSE, BEARING IN

MIND THAT WINDS WERE ALREADY REACHING 30KT AT 06UTC. IN THE ABSENCE

OF MORE SOLID OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT A 30KT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, BUT LOCAL PEAKS NEAR 35KT ARE VERY LIKELY

IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IS

IMMINENT.

 

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT

TERM, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD TURN

SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL

RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE

SYSTEM OVER SOME PARTS OF THE LAND OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, BUT THIS

PORTION OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE

SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AND THEREFORE THE STEERING FLOW'S ELEVATION (A

HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD ENABLE A MORE MERIDIAN TRACK ALONG THE COAST,

WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE

DEEPLY INLAND). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE

SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ENABLING IT TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.

 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING THIS SUNDAY EVENING, DESPITE

SOME WIND SHEAR STILL PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN THIS SHEAR

SHOULD WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY ON MONDAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD THEN

BECOME EXCELLENT, WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE

SYSTEM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE, AND THE OCEANIC

POTENTIAL IS VERY HIGH. INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE

SLOW AT FIRST OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE RAPID FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE REACHED THIS SUNDAY EVENING.

LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE BY TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED AT SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT,

BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE CORE

CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY,

INTENSIFICATION COULD QUITE RAPIDLY RESUME DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL

DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND ON WATERS THAT

REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY, INTERACTION

WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

 

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

 

MOZAMBIQUE:

- LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE

PROVINCE.

- WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL

UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS

INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE

COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA

OF LANDFALL.

- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF

BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE

PROVINCE.

- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

 

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : HEAVY RAINFALL IS

POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING

TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100

MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报：周冠博  签发：董 林  2024 年 03 月 11 日 18 时 

南印度洋热带风暴“菲利波”生成

 

时       间：11日14时（北京时）

 

海       域：南印度洋

 

命       名：“菲利波”，FILIPO

 

中心位置：南纬20.3度、东经37.3度

 

强度等级：热带风暴

 

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

 

中心气压：990百帕

 

参考位置：莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉偏东方向约260公里的洋面上

 

变化过程：“菲利波”生成并加强到9级

 

预报结论：“菲利波”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：董 林  2024 年 03 月 12 日 18 时 
“菲利波”在伊尼扬巴内省登陆

时       间：12日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“菲利波”，FILIPO

中心位置：南纬21.8度、东经35.1度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：993百帕

参考位置：伊尼扬巴内省境内

变化过程： “菲利波”于12日上午11：00左右（莫桑比克当地时间12日早晨05：00左右）在伊尼扬巴内省最北端附近沿海登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力有9级（23米/秒，热带风暴级）。

预报结论：“菲利波”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度继续减弱。

图1 FY2H卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月12日14时00分）

图2 台风路径图像（北京时间2024年03月12日14时00分）

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