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AXAU01 APRF 110139 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0139 UTC 11/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 11.9S Longitude: 100.1E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: east (084 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 11/0600: 11.9S 101.2E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 998 +12: 11/1200: 12.2S 102.5E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 997 +18: 11/1800: 12.6S 103.9E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 997 +24: 12/0000: 13.1S 105.0E: 070 (135): 040 (075): 997 +36: 12/1200: 14.1S 107.2E: 090 (165): 045 (085): 996 +48: 13/0000: 15.1S 109.0E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 996 +60: 13/1200: 16.0S 110.4E: 140 (260): 040 (075): 996 +72: 14/0000: 16.8S 111.3E: 165 (305): 045 (085): 996 +96: 15/0000: 18.3S 111.6E: 205 (385): 045 (085): 996 +120: 16/0000: 19.8S 110.5E: 260 (475): 055 (100): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues to fight against easterly shear as monsoon gales continue to the north of the system. Position with moderate confidence on the animated EIR satellite imagery and the 2100Z SSMIS microwave imagery. Intensity at 40 knots based on Dvorak analysis with gales restricted to the northern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.0 based on shear pattern (less than one degree from tight temperature gradient). MET/PAT 2.0 based on D 24h trend. No objective guidance available. 08U has continued to track east associated with the strengthening monsoon in the Indian Ocean. 08U is forecast to continue moving east through today, before tracking to the southeast for the remainder of the week. In the long term, 08U is forecast to recurve to the southwest over the weekend, most likely well offshore of the Western Australian mainland. As Tropical Low 08U passes to the south of Christmas Island on Tuesday, heavy rain and strong to gale-force winds are likely due to the strengthening monsoon flow. Sea surface temperatures along the track remain warm at about 29 degrees Celsius. Easterly shear is forecast to limit the development of 08U throughout the week, with only a moderate chance of tropical cyclone development forecast through to Thursday. From Friday the shear may reduce enough and environment remains generally favourable that the system develops into a tropical cyclone. The chances may improve if the system is located a bit further south under the upper ridge. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am March 11 tropical low 11.9S 100.1E 55 +6hr 2 pm March 11 tropical low 11.9S 101.2E 85 +12hr 8 pm March 11 tropical low 12.2S 102.5E 105 +18hr 2 am March 12 tropical low 12.6S 103.9E 120 +24hr 8 am March 12 tropical low 13.1S 105.0E 135 +36hr 8 pm March 12 tropical low 14.1S 107.2E 165 +48hr 8 am March 13 tropical low 15.1S 109.0E 215 +60hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 16.0S 110.4E 260 +72hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 16.8S 111.3E 305 -
AXAU01 APRF 110708 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0708 UTC 11/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 101.6E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: east (090 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 11/1200: 12.3S 103.0E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +12: 11/1800: 12.7S 104.4E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 993 +18: 12/0000: 13.2S 105.6E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992 +24: 12/0600: 13.7S 106.7E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 992 +36: 12/1800: 14.6S 108.9E: 095 (175): 040 (075): 995 +48: 13/0600: 15.4S 110.9E: 120 (225): 040 (075): 995 +60: 13/1800: 16.1S 112.3E: 150 (275): 040 (075): 994 +72: 14/0600: 16.9S 113.3E: 170 (310): 045 (085): 992 +96: 15/0600: 18.0S 113.9E: 195 (360): 045 (085): 990 +120: 16/0600: 19.3S 113.4E: 240 (440): 055 (100): 983 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues to fight against easterly shear as monsoon gales continue to the north of the system. The animated VIS imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a well-defined low level vortex. However this seems transient in nature and the ASCAT-B imagery at 0302Z shows a very elongated centre, consistent with the broader VIS imagery. Moderate confidence in position based on ASCAT and animated imagery. Intensity at 40 knots based on ASCAT pass at 0302Z with gales restricted to the northern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT 1.0 based on shear pattern (120nm removed from the tight temperature gradient). MET/PAT 1.0 based on D 24h trend. CI held at 2.0 due to restraints. No objective guidance available. 08U has continued to track east associated with the strengthening monsoon in the Indian Ocean. 08U is forecast to take a track to the southeast tonight and for the remainder of the week. In the long term, 08U is forecast to recurve to the southwest over the weekend under the influence of the mid level ridge, most likely offshore of the Western Australian mainland. As Tropical Low 08U passes to the south of Christmas Island tomorrow, heavy rain and strong to gale-force winds are likely due to the strengthening monsoon flow. Sea surface temperatures along the track remain warm at about 29 degrees Celsius. Easterly shear is forecast to limit the development of 08U throughout the week, with only a moderate chance of tropical cyclone development forecast through to Thursday. From Friday the shear may reduce enough and environment remains generally favourable that the system develops into a tropical cyclone. The chances may improve if the system is located a bit further south under the upper ridge. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1330 UTC.
Time (CXT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm March 11 tropical low 12.1S 101.6E 55 +6hr 7 pm March 11 tropical low 12.3S 103.0E 85 +12hr 1 am March 12 tropical low 12.7S 104.4E 110 +18hr 7 am March 12 tropical low 13.2S 105.6E 120 +24hr 1 pm March 12 tropical low 13.7S 106.7E 130 +36hr 1 am March 13 tropical low 14.6S 108.9E 175 +48hr 1 pm March 13 tropical low 15.4S 110.9E 225 +60hr 1 am March 14 tropical low 16.1S 112.3E 275 +72hr 1 pm March 14 tropical low 16.9S 113.3E 310 -
WTXS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 101.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 101.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 12.7S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.4S 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.3S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.3S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.2S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.1S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 102.0E. 11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 100900).// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.2S 101.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 950 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENCED IN THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS WEAK, THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING IS DEFINED AND WRAPS NEATLY INTO THE CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN THE 110209Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. HOWEVER, AN 110304Z ASCAT-C IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO CONFIRM A BROAD CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS (35-45 KNOTS) DISPLACED ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THIS EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD IS REFLECTED IN THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30-40 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, POSSIBLY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY, AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING STR OVER AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER INTENSIFICATION RATE THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 200 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 110000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAU 72 TO TAU 120 PERIOD. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 111321 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1321 UTC 11/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 11.9S Longitude: 102.5E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east (090 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 11/1800: 12.3S 103.9E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 992 +12: 12/0000: 12.8S 105.2E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 993 +18: 12/0600: 13.3S 106.3E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 992 +24: 12/1200: 13.7S 107.6E: 075 (145): 045 (085): 992 +36: 13/0000: 14.6S 109.8E: 095 (180): 040 (075): 995 +48: 13/1200: 15.5S 111.6E: 125 (235): 040 (075): 995 +60: 14/0000: 16.2S 112.8E: 150 (275): 040 (075): 994 +72: 14/1200: 16.9S 113.4E: 155 (290): 045 (085): 992 +96: 15/1200: 18.3S 113.7E: 180 (335): 050 (095): 987 +120: 16/1200: 19.6S 113.1E: 235 (440): 055 (100): 982 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues to fight against easterly shear as monsoon gales continue to the north of the system. Animated VIS imagery prior to sunset showed a well-defined low level exposed circulation with deep convection displaced to the northwest. Scatterometry however continues to show a broad, elongated circulation. Confidence in the analysis position is poor due to the deep convection being displaced from the LLCC which is difficult to resolve on overnight IR imagery Intensity has been maintained at 40 knots based on earlier scatterometry passes though gales remain restricted to the northern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT 1.5 based on shear pattern with the LLCC around 60nm from strong T gradient. MET/PAT 1.5 based on S 24h trend. FT 1.5 based on PAT. CI held at 2.0. No objective guidance available. 08U is a relatively shallow system that continues to track east with the low-level monsoon flow and is limited by easterly shear. Environmental conditions are otherwise favourable and it is likely to slowly become deeper. As the influence of a mid-level ridge then increases it is expected to turn to the south from Thursday. Gales would then be less due to the monsoon influence, becoming confined closer to the system centre and likely extending into the southern quadrants. It could then strengthen further if it is able to move further south and under the upper ridge. It will most likely remain offshore of the Western Australian coast as it moves to the southwest over the weekend. There is however a large spread in how far east the system moves prior to turning back towards the southwest. Sea surface temperatures along the track remain warm at about 28-29 degrees Celsius. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.
Time (CXT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 pm March 11 tropical low 11.9S 102.5E 75 +6hr 1 am March 12 tropical low 12.3S 103.9E 100 +12hr 7 am March 12 tropical low 12.8S 105.2E 120 +18hr 1 pm March 12 tropical low 13.3S 106.3E 130 +24hr 7 pm March 12 tropical low 13.7S 107.6E 145 +36hr 7 am March 13 tropical low 14.6S 109.8E 180 +48hr 7 pm March 13 tropical low 15.5S 111.6E 235 +60hr 7 am March 14 tropical low 16.2S 112.8E 275 +72hr 7 pm March 14 tropical low 16.9S 113.4E 290 最后于 2024-03-11 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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AXAU01 APRF 111848 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1848 UTC 11/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 12.4S Longitude: 104.2E Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km) Movement Towards: east (097 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/0000: 12.9S 105.5E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 994 +12: 12/0600: 13.4S 106.7E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 997 +18: 12/1200: 13.8S 107.9E: 065 (120): 045 (080): 996 +24: 12/1800: 14.2S 109.0E: 075 (135): 040 (075): 997 +36: 13/0600: 15.2S 111.0E: 095 (170): 040 (075): 997 +48: 13/1800: 15.9S 112.5E: 130 (240): 040 (075): 996 +60: 14/0600: 16.7S 113.4E: 150 (275): 045 (085): 993 +72: 14/1800: 17.4S 113.9E: 165 (305): 045 (085): 994 +96: 15/1800: 18.7S 113.8E: 200 (365): 050 (095): 988 +120: 16/1800: 20.0S 113.1E: 260 (485): 055 (100): 984 REMARKS: Deep convection remains confined to the northwest quadrant of Tropical Low 08U. Position is based on animated enhanced IR imagery and recent movement since that last SSMIS microwave pass at 11:49Z. Overnight scatterometry pass missed the low level centre but confirmed that gales do not extend beyond 120nmi to the northeast. Confidence in the analysis position is fair due to the deep convection being displaced from the low level centre. Intensity has been maintained at 40 knots based on earlier scatterometry passes though gales remain restricted to the northern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 based on shear pattern with the LLCC around 40nm from strong T gradient. MET 2.5 based on D- 24h trend and PAT adjusted to 2.0. FT 2.0 based on PAT, CI 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 35kt, AiDT 36kt (1-min average). 08U is a relatively shallow system that continues to track east with the low-level monsoon flow and is limited by easterly shear. Environmental conditions are otherwise favourable with SSTs of 28 to 29 degrees Celcius along the track. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper tropical low through the week. As the influence of a mid-level ridge then increases it is expected to turn to the south from Thursday. Thursday into Friday, gales are likely to become more confined to the system centre and are forecast to extend into the southern quadrants of 08U. It is forecast to intensify into the weekend as it tracks south under the upper ridge. It will most likely remain offshore of the Western Australian coast as it moves to the southwest over the weekend. There is however a large spread in how far east the system moves prior to turning back towards the southwest and 08U may approach the coast over the weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0130 UTC.
Time (CXT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 am March 12 tropical low 12.4S 104.2E 65 +6hr 7 am March 12 tropical low 12.9S 105.5E 90 +12hr 1 pm March 12 tropical low 13.4S 106.7E 105 +18hr 7 pm March 12 tropical low 13.8S 107.9E 120 +24hr 1 am March 13 tropical low 14.2S 109.0E 135 +36hr 1 pm March 13 tropical low 15.2S 111.0E 170 +48hr 1 am March 14 tropical low 15.9S 112.5E 240 +60hr 1 pm March 14 tropical low 16.7S 113.4E 275 +72hr 1 am March 15 1 17.4S 113.9E 305 -
WTXS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 104.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 104.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.0S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.8S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.4S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.9S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.0S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 105.1E. 11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 826 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.1S 104.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 826 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WITH A BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP-LAYER CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR. MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST AT 20-25KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) OF 29-30C, AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON GOES-IO EIR AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) REVEALING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DETERMINED BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AT THE MOMENT IS THE STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER BORNEO, AND THE ACCOMPANYING DEEP WESTERLIES ALONG THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH AS OF YET IS NOT INFLUENCING THE TRACK BUT REMAINS A POTENTIAL INFLUENCER DOWN THE ROAD. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NER TO THE NORTH. FROM TAU 72 ONWARDS, THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CONTINENT, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF TC 18S, IT WILL TEND TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING FURTHER EAST, AND TEND TO SLOW IT DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. A SLOW CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT STEADILY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STRUGGLES IN THE NEAR-TERM AGAINST SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR (20-25KTS). A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, THOUGH THE RESTRAINED OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THE INTENSIFICATION. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE FAVORABLE AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 29-30C. MODEL DISCUSSION: JTWC CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, HOWEVER CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO OPEN EXPONENTIALLY BEYOND TAU 36. BY TAU 120, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS TO 1050NM, WITH GALWEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AND GFS MARKING THE NORTH. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PREFER A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER ROUTE THAN GFS. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STEERING MECHANISM BEYOND TAU 72 ARE REPRESENTED IN HOW THE RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA DEVELOPS; GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR BROOME. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING AS ONE LARGER RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MUCH SOONER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEING IN GENERAL SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS NAVGEM AND THE UKMET. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72, THEN REMAINS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, EXCEPT GFS, THROUGH TAU 120. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A VERY WIDE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS. WITH SUCH HIGH UNCERTAINTY, THE JTWC FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY AND STEADILY INCREASES TO 50-65KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND THE IMPACT OF TRACK CHANGES ON THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-12 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 120046 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0046 UTC 12/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 13.3S Longitude: 105.6E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (112 deg) Speed of Movement: 15 knots (27 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/0600: 13.7S 107.1E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 995 +12: 12/1200: 14.0S 108.4E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 995 +18: 12/1800: 14.4S 109.8E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 995 +24: 13/0000: 14.8S 111.1E: 075 (140): 040 (075): 995 +36: 13/1200: 15.6S 113.3E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 995 +48: 14/0000: 16.4S 114.7E: 130 (240): 040 (075): 994 +60: 14/1200: 17.3S 115.4E: 155 (290): 045 (085): 991 +72: 15/0000: 17.9S 115.3E: 175 (320): 045 (085): 992 +96: 16/0000: 19.0S 114.4E: 190 (350): 055 (100): 984 +120: 17/0000: 20.1S 113.5E: 275 (505): 060 (110): 978 REMARKS: Deep convection remains confined well to the northwest of an exposed low level circulation centre of Tropical Low 08U. Position is based on animated VIS imagery, persistence and recent microwave passes. Confidence in the analysis position is good. Intensity is maintained at 40 knots based on earlier scatterometry passes, though gales remain restricted to the northern quadrant. Dvorak analysis is based on MET=1.5 on a W- 24h trend. DT is inclusive as the LLCC is more than 90nm from deepest convection. CI is held at 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 33kt, AiDT 31kt, DPRINT 28kt (1-min average). 08U is a shallow system that continues to track east with the low-level monsoon flow and is limited by 22kt easterly shear. Environmental conditions are otherwise favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track, decent monsoon flow to the north and reasonable upper level divergence. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of the mid-level ridge over Australia would then increase and 08U is expected to turn towards the south. Gales are likely to become more confined to the system centre and are forecast to extend into the southern quadrants of 08U from Thursday. It is forecast to intensify into the weekend as it tracks south under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario keeps 08U off the coast of Western Australian as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is however a large spread in the guidance in the longer term. A small number of guidance keeps the system as a shallow low and track it further east, before developing it. If this happens, then 08U is likely to be closer to the coast as it turns towards the southwest over the weekend. In any case, there could be possible impacts along the Pilbara coast due to its proximity to the coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0730 UTC.
Time (CXT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am March 12 tropical low 13.3S 105.6E 55 +6hr 1 pm March 12 tropical low 13.7S 107.1E 85 +12hr 7 pm March 12 tropical low 14.0S 108.4E 105 +18hr 1 am March 13 tropical low 14.4S 109.8E 120 +24hr 7 am March 13 tropical low 14.8S 111.1E 140 +36hr 7 pm March 13 tropical low 15.6S 113.3E 180 +48hr 7 am March 14 tropical low 16.4S 114.7E 240 +60hr 7 pm March 14 tropical low 17.3S 115.4E 290 +72hr 7 am March 15 1 17.9S 115.3E 320 -
WTXS32 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 105.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 105.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.2S 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.8S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.5S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.1S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.0S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.0S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.1S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 106.2E. 12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 105.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 725 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND EXPANDING CIRRUS FILAMENTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK MOTION HOWEVER HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE LLCC DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD UP TO THE 0000Z HOUR SUBSEQUENTLY STOMPING ON THE BRAKES AND BECOMING ALMOST STATIONARY THROUGH THE 0200Z HOUR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENCOURAGING STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ARE BEING OFFSET BY THE ELEVATED VWS, INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSOLIDATED VORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS, AS THUS BASED ENTIRELY ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW AS WELL AS THE OVERALL RAGGED AND DETERIORATED STRUCTURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS APRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 122120Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 120030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NER TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA RIDGES WESTWARD, CREATING A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 72, THE EVOLUTION OF THE STR PATTERN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE, WHILE IN THE GFS THE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED MORE EAST-WEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RUN INTO THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR WHICH WILL BLOCK THE STORM FROM TRAVELING FURTHER EAST AND WHICH WILL SLOW THE SPEED AND REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE THE VORTEX AGAINST ELEVATED VWS OF 20-25KTS. AS VWS LESSENS FROM TAU 72-120, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, REACHING OF A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS TO 820NM, BOUNDED BY GALWEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GFS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE VARIATIONS IN THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REPRESENTED IN EACH MODEL. PARTICULARLY, ECMWF REPRESENTS A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE CLOSER TO THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A LARGE STR OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT WHICH BLOCKS THE SYSTEM FROM CONTINUING ON ITS EASTWARD TRACK AND CAUSES IT TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE OTHER HAND, GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE MARKING ITS TURN SOUTH BY TAU 72. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE TRACK FORECAST IS DETERMINED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL AND CONSISTENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) WHICH SPIKES TO 130KTS BETWEEN TAU 96-120 LIKELY DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED REACTION TO A DROP IN VWS. HOWEVER, WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT, THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY, AS A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM VERSUS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN