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WTXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 110.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 110.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.4S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.8S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.4S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.0S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.7S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.6S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 111.2E. 13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 110.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S AS HAVING TWO MESOVORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID AS SHOWN IN A 122245Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 130223Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 30 KTS, REASONABLY 35KTS INCORPORATING A GENERAL LOW BIAS OF THE COLLECTING SENSOR, ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THE MESOVORTICES IN THEIR NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15-20 KTS WINDS IN THEIR SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 18S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 130600Z HIMAWARI-9 SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETRY DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 130700Z CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 130800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE NORTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WHERE IT WILL COMMENCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO A STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 24 IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS BY TAU 36, WHICH WILL START AN EVIDENT INTENSIFYING TREND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF NEAR 80 KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 250 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLYING MODEL OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EASTWARD BEFORE MAKING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONSIDERING THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER ALIGNMENT SUGGESTING A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80KTS WITH AN INTENSITY SPREAD RANGING BETWEEN 65 TO 85 KTS AT TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 131303 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1302 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 112.0E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (117 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/1800: 15.5S 112.7E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +12: 14/0000: 15.6S 113.6E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 994 +18: 14/0600: 15.9S 114.5E: 075 (145): 035 (065): 994 +24: 14/1200: 16.2S 115.3E: 090 (165): 035 (065): 994 +36: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.1E: 115 (215): 035 (065): 993 +48: 15/1200: 17.4S 116.0E: 130 (245): 035 (065): 993 +60: 16/0000: 17.6S 115.3E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 992 +72: 16/1200: 17.9S 114.7E: 165 (305): 040 (075): 990 +96: 17/1200: 18.6S 114.0E: 215 (395): 055 (100): 980 +120: 18/1200: 20.1S 113.0E: 285 (530): 060 (110): 978 REMARKS: Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. Confidence in the centre position is fair based on persistence and animated EIR imagery. Dvorak analysis: centre remains exposed. Unable to apply any particular pattern confidently. MET of 1.5 based on a W- trend, PAT adjusted 1.0. FT of 1.0, CI held at 1.5. Objective guidance: ADT 32kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 28kt, DMINT 27kt (old), SATCON 36kt (old) (1-min average). Recent scatterometry indicates about 30 knots to the north, but re-strengthening to gales is the short term in the strong monsoonal flow to the north is likely. Gales analysed and forecast to persist in the northern quadrants. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric later in the week. It is forecast to intensify over the weekend and early next week as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance. There is the possibility of it moving further east before turning to the south then southwest, which would see it move closer to or across the west Pilbara coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 15.4S 112.0E 75 +6hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.5S 112.7E 100 +12hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.6S 113.6E 120 +18hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.9S 114.5E 145 +24hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.2S 115.3E 165 +36hr 8 am March 15 tropical low 16.8S 116.1E 215 +48hr 8 pm March 15 tropical low 17.4S 116.0E 245 +60hr 8 am March 16 1 17.6S 115.3E 280 +72hr 8 pm March 16 1 17.9S 114.7E 305 -
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WDXS32 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 111.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, A WESTWARD TILTING VORTEX AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO TAP INTO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131200Z HIMAWARI-9 EIR IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131200Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 131200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK TO MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE NORTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36, WHERE IT IS ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE A POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE COMPLETED THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (10-15 KTS) STARING AT TAU 36 AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY WARM. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 325 NM AT TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLYING MODEL, TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST BEFORE STARTING THE POLEWARD TURN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY DIVIDED REGARDING THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN, AND AS SUCH, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT - RELATIVE TO TRACK AGREEMENT - WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. BY TAU 48, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. THERE IS A 20 KT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT PERSISTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-15 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 131907 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1907 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 113.1E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east (096 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 14/0000: 15.6S 114.0E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +12: 14/0600: 15.8S 114.9E: 070 (125): 035 (065): 994 +18: 14/1200: 16.1S 115.7E: 080 (145): 035 (065): 994 +24: 14/1800: 16.4S 116.2E: 090 (170): 035 (065): 993 +36: 15/0600: 17.1S 116.5E: 115 (210): 035 (065): 993 +48: 15/1800: 17.4S 116.0E: 130 (240): 035 (065): 992 +60: 16/0600: 17.7S 115.4E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 990 +72: 16/1800: 17.8S 114.8E: 165 (310): 045 (085): 988 +96: 17/1800: 18.8S 114.1E: 220 (405): 060 (110): 978 +120: 18/1800: 20.5S 113.2E: 290 (540): 055 (100): 981 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. The low level circulation has been exposed for most of the past 24 to 36 hours, with multiple centres at times. Convection has been displaced to the west of the LLCC, waxing and waning with the diurnal cycle with no overall development occurring; if anything the system has weakened slightly compared to Tuesday night. Confidence in the centre position is low with persistence and animated EIR imagery the main guidance. Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 1.5 with the estimated centre displaced 0.9 degrees from the deep convection. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour S trend, and PT is adjusted down to 1.5. FT is 1.5 based on PAT, with CI also 1.5. Objective guidance: ADT 32kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 25kt, and SATCON 43kt (all 1-min average). Earlier (Wednesday morning) scatterometry indicated a broad swathe of max 30 knot winds in the monsoon dominated flow to the north, but these winds are expected to fluctuate around 30 to 35 knots diurnally so intensity has been maintained at 35 knots with gales in the northern quadrants only. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. From Friday, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will begin to slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will begin to steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to begin to develop, and tropical cyclone strength is currently forecast from Saturday. Further intensification is possible as 08U tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge over the weekend and early next week. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend and into next week. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance due to different relative strengths of modelled steering influences, with some favouring a track further east before turning, and/or more southerly movement. An approach close to or across the western Pilbara coast early next week therefore remains possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.4S 113.1E 75 +6hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.6S 114.0E 100 +12hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.8S 114.9E 125 +18hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.1S 115.7E 145 +24hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.4S 116.2E 170 +36hr 2 pm March 15 tropical low 17.1S 116.5E 210 +48hr 2 am March 16 tropical low 17.4S 116.0E 240 +60hr 2 pm March 16 1 17.7S 115.4E 280 +72hr 2 am March 17 1 17.8S 114.8E 310 -
WTXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.6S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.2S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.8S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.2S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.0S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.8S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 112.5E. 13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 112.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 434 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND NO ORGANIZED FEEDER BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 131451Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS DPRINT: 25 KTS AT 13800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 36, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA, WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE, PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND BY TAU 120 WILL REACH 80KTS AS IT COMES TO WITHIN 140NM OF LEARMONTH. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT UNEVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 195NM AT TAU 72 AND 287NM AT TAU 120. THIS PLUS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM POSITIONING, LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 140106 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0105 UTC 14/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 113.5E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: east (094 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 14/0600: 15.8S 114.3E: 040 (080): 035 (065): 996 +12: 14/1200: 16.1S 115.2E: 060 (110): 035 (065): 996 +18: 14/1800: 16.4S 115.9E: 075 (135): 035 (065): 995 +24: 15/0000: 16.7S 116.2E: 090 (165): 035 (065): 995 +36: 15/1200: 17.3S 116.3E: 105 (195): 035 (065): 994 +48: 16/0000: 17.6S 115.7E: 130 (240): 035 (065): 995 +60: 16/1200: 17.9S 115.1E: 145 (270): 045 (085): 989 +72: 17/0000: 18.0S 114.5E: 165 (305): 050 (095): 986 +96: 18/0000: 18.7S 113.3E: 210 (390): 060 (110): 977 +120: 19/0000: 20.2S 112.3E: 295 (545): 055 (100): 981 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. The low level circulation continues to be exposed and at times there are multiple centres. Convection has been displaced to the west of the LLCC, waxing and waning with the diurnal cycle; with some development during the last 6 hrs. Confidence in the centre position is fair based on animated Vis imagery and slightly earlier SSMIS microwave imagery at 2023 UTC. Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 2.0 with the estimated centre displaced 0.75 degrees from the deep convection. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour D- trend, and PT agrees. FT of 2.0 based on MET/PAT, with CI also 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 33kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 32kt, and SATCON 40kt (all 1-min average). Earlier (Wednesday morning) scatterometry indicated a broad swathe of max 30 knot winds in the monsoon dominated flow to the north, but these winds are expected to fluctuate around 30 to 35 knots diurnally so intensity has been maintained at 35 knots with gales in the northern quadrants only. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. From Friday, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will begin to slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will begin to steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to begin to develop, and tropical cyclone strength is currently forecast from Saturday. Further intensification is possible as 08U tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge over the weekend and early next week. Additionally, there is a slight chance for the system to become severe. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend and into next week. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance due to different relative strengths of modelled steering influences, with some favouring a track further east before turning, and/or more southerly movement. An approach close to or across the western Pilbara coast early next week therefore remains possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.4S 113.5E 45 +6hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.8S 114.3E 80 +12hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.1S 115.2E 110 +18hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.4S 115.9E 135 +24hr 8 am March 15 tropical low 16.7S 116.2E 165 +36hr 8 pm March 15 tropical low 17.3S 116.3E 195 +48hr 8 am March 16 tropical low 17.6S 115.7E 240 +60hr 8 pm March 16 1 17.9S 115.1E 270 +72hr 8 am March 17 2 18.0S 114.5E 305 -
WTXS32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 113.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 113.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.1S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.7S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.2S 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.6S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.2S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.9S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.2S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 114.3E. 14MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 113.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 402 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND NO ORGANIZED FEEDER BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 132330Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 132330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 30-40 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA, WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE, A STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, PEAKING AT 70KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KTS AS IT COMES TO WITHIN 120NM TO THE NORTH OF LEARMONTH. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SPREADING OUT TO 1103NM AT TAU 72 AND 287NM AT TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR- TO MID-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, THE SPREAD BECOMES MORE UNEVEN AND WIDER TO 241NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 140705 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0659 UTC 14/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.9S Longitude: 114.7E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (111 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 14/1200: 16.2S 115.4E: 045 (080): 035 (065): 996 +12: 14/1800: 16.5S 115.9E: 060 (110): 035 (065): 995 +18: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.1E: 075 (135): 035 (065): 995 +24: 15/0600: 17.0S 116.2E: 080 (150): 035 (065): 995 +36: 15/1800: 17.5S 116.3E: 095 (180): 035 (065): 995 +48: 16/0600: 17.8S 115.8E: 115 (215): 035 (065): 992 +60: 16/1800: 18.0S 115.1E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 989 +72: 17/0600: 18.2S 114.6E: 160 (295): 045 (085): 982 +96: 18/0600: 19.2S 113.4E: 210 (390): 060 (110): 977 +120: 19/0600: 20.9S 112.3E: 275 (510): 045 (085): 984 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. The low level circulation is exposed and at times there are multiple centres. Convection has been displaced to the west of the LLCC, waxing and waning with the diurnal cycle; with some weakening during the last 6 hrs as the centre has moved further east from the deepest convection. Confidence in the centre position is fair based on animated Vis imagery, though our analysis is weighted just to the west of the visible centre due to our multiple centres. Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 1.5 with the estimated centre displaced 1.25 degrees from the deep convection. MET is 1.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, and PT agrees. FT of 1.5 based on MET/PAT, with CI held above at 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 34kn, AiDT 35kn, DPRINT 27kn, DMIT 30kn and SATCON 45kn (all 1-min average). ASCAT at 0110 UTC this morning had gales in northern quadrants and supportes continuing with an intensity (10-min mean) of 35kn. 08U is currently tracking east-southeast with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. From Friday, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will begin to slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will begin to steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to begin to develop, and tropical cyclone strength is currently forecast from Sunday. Further intensification is possible as 08U tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge over the weekend and early next week. Additionally, there is a slight chance for the system to become severe. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend and into next week. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance due to different relative strengths of modelled steering influences, with some favouring a track further east before turning, and/or more southerly movement. An approach close to or across the western Pilbara coast early next week therefore remains possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.9S 114.7E 45 +6hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.2S 115.4E 80 +12hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.5S 115.9E 110 +18hr 8 am March 15 tropical low 16.8S 116.1E 135 +24hr 2 pm March 15 tropical low 17.0S 116.2E 150 +36hr 2 am March 16 tropical low 17.5S 116.3E 180 +48hr 2 pm March 16 tropical low 17.8S 115.8E 215 +60hr 2 am March 17 1 18.0S 115.1E 250 +72hr 2 pm March 17 1 18.2S 114.6E 295 -
WTXS32 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 115.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 115.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.9S 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.4S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.8S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.1S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.7S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.8S 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.7S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 115.2E. 14MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2S 115.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND FULLY-EXPOSED AS REVEALED IN THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 140202Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 30 KNOTS, WITH UW-CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 34 TO 35 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 140159Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 140600Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 140600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING AND SLOWING POLEWARD PROGRESSION. AFTER TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 165 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND 245 NM AT TAU 120. THE 140000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ALSO INDICATE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THE 140000Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) SHOWS INCREASING INTENSITY PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, WITH PEAK PROBABILITY VALUES RANGING FROM 60 TO 90 PERCENT FROM TAU 54 TO TAU 100. RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW AT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AFTER TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN