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AXAU01 APRF 190653 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0653 UTC 19/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 18.0S Longitude: 111.7E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (238 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 19/1200: 17.8S 111.4E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 999 +12: 19/1800: 17.6S 111.0E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 999 +18: 20/0000: 17.5S 110.5E: 060 (105): 030 (055): 999 +24: 20/0600: 17.4S 109.9E: 065 (115): 030 (055): 998 +36: 20/1800: 17.4S 108.3E: 070 (135): 040 (075): 997 +48: 21/0600: 17.4S 106.5E: 085 (160): 040 (075): 994 +60: 21/1800: 17.3S 104.4E: 100 (185): 045 (085): 993 +72: 22/0600: 17.4S 101.8E: 110 (205): 050 (095): 991 +96: 23/0600: 18.6S 95.9E: 130 (240): 055 (100): 990 +120: 24/0600: 20.8S 90.8E: 170 (320): 040 (075): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U is very slow moving well northwest of the Pilbara coast. Position is fair based on animated Vis imagery. Dvorak analysis: DT is based on a 0.5 wrap. The 24h trend is D- with MET 2.5, and PAT 2.5. The FT 2.5 is based on the DT and PAT. CI is 2.5. Recent objective guidance: ADT 34kn, AiDT 32kn, DPRINT 43kn (all 1-min average) (SATCON N/A). Intensity is set at 30 kn which in line with the objective guidance and Dvorak analysis. The vertical wind shear has been moderate northeasterly and the environment is not particularly favourable for development in the short term due to surrounding dry air. The forecast shear could continue to decrease over the coming days and slow intensification is forecast. Some NWP guidance indicates further intensification to category 2, or a small chance of higher intensity, later in the week or early next weekend, as the system moves west across the southern Indian Ocean into a slightly more supportive upper environment. 08U has been moving generally to the west under the influence of a weak steering ridge to the south. This westward movement is stalling due to the passage of a mid-level trough to the south and the recent southerly component to the systems motion may be influenced by this. From later this evening the sub-tropical ridge is forecast to strengthen, maintaining a steady westerly track at faster speed from Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm March 19 tropical low 18.0S 111.7E 55 +6hr 8 pm March 19 tropical low 17.8S 111.4E 85 +12hr 2 am March 20 tropical low 17.6S 111.0E 100 +18hr 8 am March 20 tropical low 17.5S 110.5E 105 +24hr 2 pm March 20 tropical low 17.4S 109.9E 115 +36hr 2 am March 21 1 17.4S 108.3E 135 +48hr 2 pm March 21 1 17.4S 106.5E 160 +60hr 2 am March 22 1 17.3S 104.4E 185 +72hr 2 pm March 22 2 17.4S 101.8E 205 -
AXAU01 APRF 191317 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1317 UTC 19/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.8S Longitude: 111.4E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (289 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 19/1800: 17.7S 111.1E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 1000 +12: 20/0000: 17.6S 110.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1001 +18: 20/0600: 17.6S 109.9E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 1001 +24: 20/1200: 17.5S 109.0E: 070 (125): 035 (065): 999 +36: 21/0000: 17.6S 107.0E: 075 (140): 040 (075): 996 +48: 21/1200: 17.5S 105.2E: 095 (175): 045 (085): 993 +60: 22/0000: 17.5S 102.9E: 110 (205): 055 (100): 987 +72: 22/1200: 17.7S 100.1E: 120 (225): 055 (100): 988 +96: 23/1200: 19.3S 94.0E: 130 (240): 050 (095): 989 +120: 24/1200: 21.6S 89.3E: 170 (315): 040 (075): 994 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U is very slow moving well northwest of the Pilbara coast. Position is fair based on animated EIR imagery. Intensity is set at 30 kn. Dvorak analysis: DT is based on a 0.3-0.4 wrap and is at 2.5. The 24h trend is S with MET 2.0, and PAT 2.5. The FT 2.5 is based on the DT and PAT. CI is 2.5. There is little objective guidance available: DPRINT 38kn, SATCON 37 (all 1-min average). Intensity is in line with the objective guidance and Dvorak analysis. The vertical wind shear has been moderate northeasterly and the environment is not particularly favourable for development in the short term due to surrounding dry air. The forecast shear could continue to decrease over the coming days and slow intensification is forecast. Some NWP guidance indicates further intensification to category 2, or a small chance of higher intensity, later in the week or early next weekend, as the system moves west across the southern Indian Ocean into a slightly more supportive upper environment. 08U has been moving generally to the west under the influence of a weak steering ridge to the south. This westward movement is stalling due to the passage of a mid-level trough to the south. From Wednesday the sub-tropical ridge is forecast to strengthen, maintaining a steady westerly track but at faster speed. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm March 19 tropical low 17.8S 111.4E 55 +6hr 2 am March 20 tropical low 17.7S 111.1E 80 +12hr 8 am March 20 tropical low 17.6S 110.5E 100 +18hr 2 pm March 20 tropical low 17.6S 109.9E 110 +24hr 8 pm March 20 tropical low 17.5S 109.0E 125 +36hr 8 am March 21 1 17.6S 107.0E 140 +48hr 8 pm March 21 1 17.5S 105.2E 175 +60hr 8 am March 22 2 17.5S 102.9E 205 +72hr 8 pm March 22 2 17.7S 100.1E 225 -
AXAU01 APRF 191849 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1849 UTC 19/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 111.1E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (298 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/0000: 17.6S 110.5E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 1001 +12: 20/0600: 17.6S 109.9E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1001 +18: 20/1200: 17.5S 109.1E: 060 (115): 035 (065): 999 +24: 20/1800: 17.5S 108.0E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 996 +36: 21/0600: 17.6S 106.1E: 070 (135): 045 (085): 993 +48: 21/1800: 17.4S 104.1E: 090 (165): 050 (095): 990 +60: 22/0600: 17.5S 101.5E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 988 +72: 22/1800: 17.9S 98.6E: 110 (200): 055 (100): 988 +96: 23/1800: 19.8S 92.7E: 125 (225): 045 (085): 993 +120: 24/1800: 22.2S 88.4E: 155 (290): 035 (065): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U continues to move westwards and may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours. Position is moderate based on animated EIR imagery and a good GMI microwave pass at 1523UTC. Intensity is set at 30 kn. Dvorak analysis: DT is based on a 0.3 wrap and is at 2.5. The 24h trend is S with MET 2.0, and PAT 2.5. The FT 2.5 is based on the DT and PAT. CI is 2.5. There is little objective guidance available: DPRINT 35kn (1-min average). Intensity is in line with the objective guidance, scat passes and Dvorak analysis. Despite the very dry environment tropical low 08U has shown some improvement in the cloud pattern over the last few days with curved band patterns yielding DT of 2.0 to 2.5. However so far it has not been able to progress its development any further with high vertical wind shear and the dry surrounding air limiting the intensification processes. Recent upper wind analyses indicate that shear is decreasing and the passage of an upper trough to the south has increased poleward outflow aloft over the last 24 hours. Model guidance favours intensification but differ in the timing of development into a tropical cyclone. The GFS has the quickest development of a cyclone by 21 March with other global models holding off until 22 March. The current forecast indicates a tropical cyclone by 21 March with peak intensity reaching 55 knots. There is a spread of peak intensity in model guidance and there is a risk 08U could further intensify as it moves west. In the longer term 08U is forecast to recurve to the southwest and weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and is possibly affected by increasing shear. 08U has been moving generally slowly to the west under the influence of a weak steering ridge, this has been weakened by the passage of an upper trough to the south. As the trough moves away during Wednesday a faster westwards movement is forecast as the ridge becomes the dominant steering mechanism again. In the longer term the ridge is eroded and 08U turns to the southwest and then south. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am March 20 tropical low 17.7S 111.1E 35 +6hr 8 am March 20 tropical low 17.6S 110.5E 80 +12hr 2 pm March 20 tropical low 17.6S 109.9E 100 +18hr 8 pm March 20 tropical low 17.5S 109.1E 115 +24hr 2 am March 21 1 17.5S 108.0E 120 +36hr 2 pm March 21 1 17.6S 106.1E 135 +48hr 2 am March 22 2 17.4S 104.1E 165 +60hr 2 pm March 22 2 17.5S 101.5E 185 +72hr 2 am March 23 2 17.9S 98.6E 200 -
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AXAU01 APRF 200125 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0125 UTC 20/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 110.2E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west (278 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 999 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/0600: 17.7S 109.5E: 030 (055): 035 (065): 1000 +12: 20/1200: 17.6S 108.8E: 040 (075): 035 (065): 998 +18: 20/1800: 17.4S 107.9E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 998 +24: 21/0000: 17.4S 107.0E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 995 +36: 21/1200: 17.6S 105.0E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 992 +48: 22/0000: 17.5S 102.6E: 070 (135): 060 (110): 986 +60: 22/1200: 17.8S 99.7E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 986 +72: 23/0000: 18.4S 96.6E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 988 +96: 24/0000: 20.6S 91.0E: 135 (250): 045 (085): 994 +120: 25/0000: 22.7S 87.1E: 195 (360): 030 (055): 1003 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U has begun to move a little more rapidly westwards and may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Position fix is good based primarily on animated early morning Vis imagery. Intensity is set at 30 kn. Dvorak analysis: DT is based on a 0.4 to 0.5 wrap in Vis and is at 2.5. The 24h trend is S with MET 2.5, and PAT 2.5. The FT 2.5 is based on the DT and PAT. CI is 2.5. There is little objective guidance available. Despite the very dry environment in the immediate vicinity of 08U, the system has shown some improvement in the cloud pattern over the last few days with curved band patterns yielding DT of 2.0 to 2.5, however further development has been hampered primarily due to relatively strong vertical wind shear combined with the dry surroundings. Recent upper wind analyses indicate that vertical shear has weakened significantly, with convection beginning to wrap into the northern flank of the system, although this convection is somewhat less vigorous than earlier. The passage of an upper trough to the south has also increased poleward outflow aloft over the last 24 hours. Model guidance favours intensification but differ in the timing of development into a tropical cyclone. The system is located over SSTs in the 27 to 28C range, and the forecast track takes it over slightly cooler waters in the next day or two -- this appears to be the main impediment to development, with vertical wind shear forecast to remain weak. Model guidance is generally supportive of a developing trend in the next day or two, with higher resolution models showing a more rapid and robust development. Given the recent improvement in structure and environment, the current forecast indicates a tropical cyclone a little earlier than previous by 12Z 20 March with peak intensity reaching 60 knots. There is a spread of peak intensity in model guidance and there is a risk 08U could further intensify as it moves west. In the longer term 08U is forecast to recurve to the southwest and weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and is possibly affected by increasing shear. 08U has been moving generally slowly to the west under the influence of a weak steering ridge to the south, this has been weakened by the passage of an upper trough to the south. With the trough moving away during today, the system appears to have recently accelerated a little to the west, and this faster westwards movement is forecast to continue as the ridge becomes the dominant steering mechanism. In the longer term the ridge is eroded and 08U turns to the southwest and then south. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am March 20 tropical low 17.7S 110.2E 30 +6hr 2 pm March 20 tropical low 17.7S 109.5E 55 +12hr 8 pm March 20 1 17.6S 108.8E 75 +18hr 2 am March 21 1 17.4S 107.9E 85 +24hr 8 am March 21 1 17.4S 107.0E 95 +36hr 8 pm March 21 2 17.6S 105.0E 105 +48hr 8 am March 22 2 17.5S 102.6E 135 +60hr 8 pm March 22 2 17.8S 99.7E 165 +72hr 8 am March 23 2 18.4S 96.6E 185 -
WTXS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 110.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 110.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.6S 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.6S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.6S 105.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.9S 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.2S 96.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.7S 91.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.8S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 110.0E. 20MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 18S, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 110.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 341 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH HOT TOWERS CONCENTRATING OVER THE SUSPECTED AREA OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ENHANCEMENT OF THE 191426Z ASCAT-C PASS INDICATED 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS, HOWEVER, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WAS NOT COMPLETELY IN THE FOOTPRINT. A 191814Z AMSR2 37V PASS REVEALED A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER FEATURE, WITH GENERALLY SYMMETRIC BANDING. COMPARISON WITH THE 89 GHZ CHANNEL INDICATES THERE IS A NORTH-SOUTH TILT IN THE VORTEX, HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF TILT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING. COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE IN THE MSI, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ASSESSED TO BE DECREASING, OR TC 18S IS BEGINNING TO SUCCESSFULLY PUSH BACK AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. A RARE SUBSEQUENT STRING OF GOOD-COVERAGE SSMIS AND COWVR PASSES PROVIDES A TIME SERIES OF DEVELOPMENT AND LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS, BASED ON DVORAK T2.5 FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, AND IS SUPPORTED BY CIMSS ADT, AIDT, AND DPRINT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING MODERATELY ENHANCED BY A JET TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND SSTS ARE A FAVORABLE 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATES TC 18S IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, HOWEVER, A POCKET OF DEEP CENTRAL MOISTURE IS PREVENTING DRIER AIR FROM PENETRATING THE CORE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 200100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RESUMING JTWC WARNINGS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA INDICATING TC 18S HAS REACHED 35 KNOT WARNING CRITERIA. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS THE VORTEX ALIGNMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ENHANCES THE MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED AROUND THE PERIPHERY. AFTER 24 HOURS, MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF STRONG DEEPENING, NEARING RAPID INTENSIFICATION PACE, AS VWS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WAS SET AT 75 KNOTS, WHICH HELD BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE MESOSCALE MODELS, GIVEN THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTWARD, AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN FEELING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED VWS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIVE DAY FORECAST INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS, HOWEVER, DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF REGENERATED WARNINGS. HOWEVER, GFS, GEFS, AND HAFS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND ALTHOUGH FASTER THAN THE ECWMF AND ITS ENSEMBLE, THE TRACK PATTERNS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME. GIVEN THE LIMITED MODELS, 0-72 HOUR TRACK CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM, AND THE EXTENDED TRACK CONFIDENCE IS SET TO LOW. THESE ASSESSMENTS SHOULD IMPROVE IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED. INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS SET TO LOW, WHILE ASSESSING IF THIS CURRENT ROUND OF IMPROVEMENT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-20 20:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 200717 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0717 UTC 20/03/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Neville Identifier: 08U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 109.6E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west (274 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/1200: 17.5S 109.2E: 030 (055): 040 (075): 996 +12: 20/1800: 17.3S 108.3E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 993 +18: 21/0000: 17.3S 107.5E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 990 +24: 21/0600: 17.4S 106.5E: 045 (085): 055 (100): 987 +36: 21/1800: 17.4S 104.3E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 984 +48: 22/0600: 17.5S 101.6E: 070 (135): 065 (120): 981 +60: 22/1800: 17.9S 98.7E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 984 +72: 23/0600: 18.9S 95.5E: 110 (205): 055 (100): 986 +96: 24/0600: 21.0S 90.3E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 995 +120: 25/0600: 23.4S 87.2E: 230 (430): 030 (055): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Neville has developed. Position fix is good based primarily on animated Vis imagery supported by GMI microwave pass at 0449 UTC. Intensity is set at 35 kn. Ascat passes at 0227 and 0139 UTC indicated a 30 kn system and the cloud structure has developed significantly since then. Dvorak analysis: DT is based on a 0.8 to 1.2 wrap in Vis and is at 3.5. The 24h trend is D with MET 3.5, and PAT 3.5. The FT held at 3.0 due to constraints. CI is 3.0. Recent objective guidance: ADT 39kn, AiDT 34kn, DPRINT 44kn, DMINT 52kn and SATCON 46 kn (all 1-min average). Despite the very dry environment in the immediate vicinity of 08U, recent upper wind analyses indicate that vertical shear has weakened significantly over the system, and this has led to a significant improvement in the cloud pattern over the last few hours with convection wrapping much more symmetrically and curved band patterns showing much improved curvature on both southern and northern flanks of the system. The passage of an upper trough to the south has also increased poleward outflow aloft over the last 24 hours. The system is located over SSTs in the 27 to 28C range, and the forecast track takes it over slightly cooler waters in the next day or two -- this appears to be the main impediment to rapid development, with vertical wind shear forecast to remain weak, which in turn should protect the inner circulation from penetration of the surrounding dry air. Model guidance is generally supportive of a developing trend in the next day or two, with higher resolution models showing a more rapid and robust development. The current forecast calls for intensification at a standard rate for the next 24 to 36 hours, with the system achieving category 3 severe TC status on Friday with intensity reaching 65 knots. There is a spread of peak intensity in model guidance and there is a risk 08U could intensify more rapidly as it moves west. In the longer term 08U is forecast to recurve to the southwest and weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and is possibly affected by increasing vertical wind shear. 08U has been moving generally slowly to the west under the influence of a weak steering ridge to the south, this has been weakened by the passage of an upper trough to the south. With the trough moving away during today, the system appears to have recently accelerated a little to the west, and this faster westwards movement is forecast to continue as the ridge becomes the dominant steering mechanism. In the longer term the ridge is eroded and 08U turns to the southwest and then south. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm March 20 1 17.7S 109.6E 30 +6hr 8 pm March 20 1 17.5S 109.2E 55 +12hr 2 am March 21 1 17.3S 108.3E 75 +18hr 8 am March 21 2 17.3S 107.5E 80 +24hr 2 pm March 21 2 17.4S 106.5E 85 +36hr 2 am March 22 2 17.4S 104.3E 100 +48hr 2 pm March 22 3 17.5S 101.6E 135 +60hr 2 am March 23 2 17.9S 98.7E 170 +72hr 2 pm March 23 2 18.9S 95.5E 205 -
WTXS31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 109.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 109.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.6S 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.6S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.6S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.9S 101.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.4S 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.4S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 23.8S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 109.2E. 20MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.7S 109.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 375 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY WITH A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION IN THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE, BUT CLEARLY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING CORE. A RECENT 200227Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELD IS LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE MSI STRUCTURE, WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200449Z GMI 89 GHZ AND 37 GHZ IMAGES INDICATE A SLIGHT TILT TO THE VORTEX, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 6 NM SSE OF THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 34 TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 200430Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 200600Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 200600Z CIMSS DPRINT: 44 KTS AT 200600Z CIMSS DMINT: 52 KTS AT 200448Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTERACTING WITH A SHARP SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AROUND THE STR, IT WILL TRACK UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24 TO 26 C) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120 AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GRADUALLY, WITH A 180 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, WITH HAFS-A INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 103 KNOTS AT TAU 60 AND COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 48. ALTHOUGH NO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED YET, THE 200000Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY PLOT INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PEAK PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 201338 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1338 UTC 20/03/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Neville Identifier: 08U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 108.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (267 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/1800: 17.6S 107.8E: 035 (060): 055 (100): 987 +12: 21/0000: 17.7S 106.9E: 040 (075): 065 (120): 979 +18: 21/0600: 17.7S 105.9E: 045 (085): 065 (120): 979 +24: 21/1200: 17.6S 104.9E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 975 +36: 22/0000: 17.5S 102.5E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 976 +48: 22/1200: 17.9S 99.8E: 075 (135): 070 (130): 976 +60: 23/0000: 18.6S 96.7E: 095 (170): 065 (120): 978 +72: 23/1200: 19.8S 93.6E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 982 +96: 24/1200: 21.5S 88.5E: 160 (295): 035 (065): 998 +120: 25/1200: 23.5S 85.4E: 240 (450): 030 (055): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Neville has intensified significantly in the past 6-12 hours. Position well defined on EIR and microwave imagery (SSMIS at 1116 UTC) that shows an eye. Intensity estimated at 50kn. This is based upon Dvorak and a balance between microwave patterns (higher) and earlier scatteometer/radiometer winds (lower). Indeed winds from AMSR2 0626UTC and earlier ASCAT at 0227 and 0139 UTC did not show gales when the cloud features would have suggested higher winds. Dvorak analysis: DT =4.0 based on combined earlier Vis curved band 1.2 to 1.5 wrap in Vis, eye on EIR (MG surround) and MET=4.0 based on D+ 24h trend not adjusted. The FT/CI constrained to 3.5 noting there is a an argument to break the 6h constraint to increase to 4.0. Recent objective guidance somewhat lower: ADT 51kn CI=3.3 but raw numbers based on eye pattern are 4.5-5.5; AiDT 42kn, DPRINT 52kn, DMINT 52kn and SATCON 44 kn at 0930UTC (all 1-min average). Neville is pouched in a moist environment surrounded by dry air. CIMSS upper wind analyses indicate that vertical shear has reduced to 15kn NE'ly. The strong microwave signature would indicate a stronger system but cloud tops are not so cold perhaps reflecting the moderate ocean temperatures (~27C). The passage of an upper trough to the south has also increased poleward outflow aloft over the last 24 hours. Further intensification is forecast in line with most NWP guidance. The forecast track takes it over slightly cooler waters in the next day or two, which is an impediment to rapid development. Otherwise the low vertical wind shear should protect the inner circulation from penetration of the surrounding dry air. There is a spread of peak intensity in model guidance and there is a risk Neville could intensify more rapidly as it moves west. A steering ridge to the south should ensure a consistent westerly track but in the longer term the ridge should weaken and Neville is forecast to recurve to the southwest and weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and is possibly affected by increasing vertical wind shear. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm March 20 2 17.7S 108.7E 35 +6hr 2 am March 21 2 17.6S 107.8E 60 +12hr 8 am March 21 3 17.7S 106.9E 75 +18hr 2 pm March 21 3 17.7S 105.9E 85 +24hr 8 pm March 21 3 17.6S 104.9E 90 +36hr 8 am March 22 3 17.5S 102.5E 100 +48hr 8 pm March 22 3 17.9S 99.8E 135 +60hr 8 am March 23 3 18.6S 96.7E 170 +72hr 8 pm March 23 2 19.8S 93.6E 215 最后于 2024-03-21 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 108.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 108.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.8S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.8S 105.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.9S 102.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4S 99.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.1S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.2S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 24.5S 87.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 108.4E. 20MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 108.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 403 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201122Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SSMIS 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO COMMENCE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 41 TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, RECENT EIR IMAGERY FROM 201300-201400Z INDICATES A FORMATIVE EYE DEVELOPING, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 1330Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 201200Z CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 201200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN 90 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48 WITH STEADY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 60 DUE TO INCREASING (15-25 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTERACTING WITH A SHARP SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AROUND THE STR, IT WILL TRACK UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WITH HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24 TO 26 C) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 PRIOR TO COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 130 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GRADUALLY, WITH A 250 NM CROSS- TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. HAFS-A SUPPORTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 94 KNOTS AT TAU 48. ALTHOUGH NO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED YET, THE 200600Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY PLOT INDICATES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PEAK PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN