ABIO10 PGTW 131030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/131030Z-131800ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130752ZMAR2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZMAR2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.9S 110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 13MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 26.0S 33.1E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 
129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130730Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
OBSCURING THE ASSESSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) 
VWS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE TRACK.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141800Z-150600ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141751ZMAR2024//
AMPN/REF A IS THE ABIO10 BULLETIN.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GROVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 141548Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH THE FLARING CONVECTION DISPLAYED TO THE 
NORTH DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS 
IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA 
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN 
INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) PREVIOUSLY 
DISCUSSED ON THE ABIO BULLETIN HAS CROSSED INTO THE ABPW BULLETIN 
REGION AND BEEN UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

AXAU01 ADRM 150145
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0145 UTC 15/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 136.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (099 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  15/0600: 13.1S 137.0E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  994
+12:  15/1200: 13.5S 137.3E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  994
+18:  15/1800: 13.8S 137.5E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  992
+24:  16/0000: 14.1S 137.7E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  990
+36:  16/1200: 14.6S 137.5E:     060 (115):  045  (085):  987
+48:  17/0000: 15.0S 137.3E:     080 (145):  055  (100):  980
+60:  17/1200: 15.4S 137.2E:     095 (180):  060  (110):  977
+72:  18/0000: 15.7S 137.2E:     120 (220):  060  (110):  976
+96:  19/0000: 16.2S 135.7E:     155 (290):  030  (055):  997
+120: 20/0000: 16.3S 132.6E:     195 (365):  020  (035): 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 09U will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is likely to
develop into a tropical cyclone. Recent motion has been steadily to the east. 

Position is based on Gove radar and surface observations, with good confidence. 

Intensity of 40 knots is based on surface observations at Ngayawili (Elcho
Island) and a HY-2B pass at 2053 UTC. No Dvorak applied due to the system being
over land. Objective aids are not yet available. 

Monsoon gales currently to the north of the system are expected to persist as
it moves east southeast into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Moderate to high easterly
shear may inhibit further development initially, however conditions should
improve as the system moves further south. On Sunday a poleward outflow channel
may aid further development, and the system is forecast to reach category 2
intensity prior to a coastal crossing in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria.
A severe (category 3) impact cannot be ruled out. 

The system is currently moving east under the influence of a monsoon surge. A
complex steering pattern develops over the weekend, with the monsoon flow
initially balance by a mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded by a
mid-level trough which allows the system to drift slowly south. By Tuesday a
new mid-level ridge develops to the south, and will steer the system towards
the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. After crossing the
coast, it will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0730 UTC.

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 15	tropical low	12.4S	136.4E	35
+6hr	4 pm March 15	tropical low	13.1S	137.0E	65
+12hr	10 pm March 15	tropical low	13.5S	137.3E	90
+18hr	4 am March 16	tropical low	13.8S	137.5E	100
+24hr	10 am March 16	1	14.1S	137.7E	110
+36hr	10 pm March 16	1	14.6S	137.5E	115
+48hr	10 am March 17	2	15.0S	137.3E	145
+60hr	10 pm March 17	2	15.4S	137.2E	180
+72hr	10 am March 18	2	15.7S	137.2E	220

WTPS21 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 136.1E TO 14.5S 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 136.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5S 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 56 
NM SOUTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION 
VALID AT 150038Z REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD 
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160130Z.//
NNNN

---

ABPW10 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150130Z-150600ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150121ZMAR2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5S 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 56 
NM SOUTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION 
VALID AT 150038Z REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD 
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN

AXAU01 ADRM 150701
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0701 UTC 15/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 136.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (141 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  15/1200: 13.4S 137.3E:     025 (050):  040  (075):  990
+12:  15/1800: 13.7S 137.4E:     040 (080):  040  (075):  990
+18:  16/0000: 14.0S 137.5E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  989
+24:  16/0600: 14.3S 137.4E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  989
+36:  16/1800: 14.7S 137.2E:     060 (115):  050  (095):  983
+48:  17/0600: 15.0S 137.0E:     075 (140):  055  (100):  979
+60:  17/1800: 15.4S 136.9E:     095 (175):  060  (110):  976
+72:  18/0600: 15.6S 136.7E:     120 (220):  060  (110):  975
+96:  19/0600: 15.8S 135.3E:     155 (290):  030  (055):  995
+120: 20/0600: 15.7S 132.6E:     185 (345):  020  (035): 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 09U has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is likely to
develop into a tropical cyclone. Recent motion has been towards the southeast. 

Position is based on Gove radar, visible satellite imagery and surface
observations, with good confidence. 

Intensity of 40 knots is based on earlier surface observations at Ngayawili
(Elcho Island) and ASCAT passes from 0046 UTC and 2359 UTC UTC. Dvorak
analysis: DT 2.5 based on shear pattern. MET/PAT 2.5 based on a D+ trend, with
FT/CI=2.5. Objective aids are not yet available. 

Monsoon gales currently to the north of the system are expected to persist as
it moves southeast in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Moderate to high easterly shear
may inhibit further development initially, however conditions should improve as
the system moves further south. On Sunday a poleward outflow channel may aid
further development, and the system is forecast to reach category 2 intensity
prior to a coastal crossing in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, most
likely during Monday. A severe (category 3) impact cannot be ruled out. 

The system is currently moving southeast under the influence of a monsoon
surge. A complex steering pattern develops over the weekend, with the monsoon
flow initially balance by a mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded
by a mid-level trough which allows the system to drift slowly south. By Tuesday
a new mid-level ridge develops to the south, and will steer the system towards
the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. After crossing the
coast, it will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC.

 

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm March 15	tropical low	13.0S	136.9E	20
+6hr	10 pm March 15	tropical low	13.4S	137.3E	50
+12hr	4 am March 16	tropical low	13.7S	137.4E	80
+18hr	10 am March 16	1	14.0S	137.5E	90
+24hr	4 pm March 16	1	14.3S	137.4E	100
+36hr	4 am March 17	2	14.7S	137.2E	115
+48hr	4 pm March 17	2	15.0S	137.0E	140
+60hr	4 am March 18	2	15.4S	136.9E	175
+72hr	4 pm March 18	2	15.6S	136.7E	220

IDD20150

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

 

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4

Issued at 7:35 pm ACST [8:05 pm AEST] on Friday 15 March 2024

 

Headline:

Developing tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria to bring strong winds and heavy rain, especially to the southwestern Gulf coast.

 

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) in NT to the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola but not including Ngukurr.

 

Watch Zone

NT/Qld border to Mornington Island, including Mornington Island. Adjacent parts of the Carpentaria District inland to Robinson River..

 

Cancelled Zone

None.

 

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm ACST [7:00 pm AEST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

 

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South 137.1 degrees East, estimated to be 95 kilometres northeast of Alyangula and 125 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy.

 

Movement: south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical Low 09U is currently located northeast of Groote Eylandt in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving to the southeast.

 

The low is forecast to develop to a tropical cyclone during Saturday, to the east of Groote Eylandt. It is then forecast to move slowly south towards the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Tropical low 09U is likely to continue to intensify as it moves south and reach category 2 strength on Sunday. It is most likely to cross the coast on Monday and weaken quickly during Tuesday.

 

Hazards:

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 110 km/h may develop over Groote Eylandt during Saturday morning.

 

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 100 km/hr may develop between Numbulwar and the Northern Territory/Queensland border, including Borroloola, from as early as Saturday evening, though more likely during Sunday. These gales will possibly extend inland to Robinson River on Sunday if the system moves more quickly to the south.

 

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 100 km/hr are possible from the Northern Territory/Queensland border to Mornington Island during Sunday, depending on how far to the southeast the system moves.

 

Destructive winds gusts are also possible for the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, near the system centre from as early as late Sunday.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL is occurring over northeastern parts of the Top End. This will increase into the weekend, with the heaviest falls limited to coastal and island locations on Saturday before reaching further inland into the Carpentaria forecast districts into Sunday. Later in the weekend, INTENSE RAINFALL is possible, especially about coastal parts of the Carpentaria districts.

 

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast this weekend. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

 

Recommended Action:

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advise:

 

For the communities in the area of the Cyclone Watch:

 

- Prepare now

 

- Stay informed

 

- Monitor conditions

 

For the communities in the area of the Cyclone Warning:

 

- Enact your household plan

 

- Prepare your property now

 

- Stay informed

 

- Monitor Take extra care on the roads

 

QFES advises:

 

People between the Queensland/ Northern Territory border and Mornington Island, including Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

- Information is available from your local government

 

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

 

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 10:30 pm ACST Friday 15 March.

 

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm March 15	tropical low	13.3S	137.1E	30
+6hr	1 am March 16	tropical low	13.7S	137.4E	55
+12hr	7 am March 16	tropical low	14.0S	137.6E	75
+18hr	1 pm March 16	1	14.3S	137.7E	90
+24hr	7 pm March 16	1	14.5S	137.6E	95
+36hr	7 am March 17	2	14.9S	137.4E	115
+48hr	7 pm March 17	2	15.3S	137.2E	140
+60hr	7 am March 18	2	15.6S	137.0E	180
+72hr	7 pm March 18	2	15.8S	136.8E	215

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AXAU01 ADRM 151318
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1318 UTC 15/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 137.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (150 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  15/1800: 13.9S 137.5E:     030 (060):  040  (075):  993
+12:  16/0000: 14.1S 137.6E:     045 (080):  040  (075):  993
+18:  16/0600: 14.4S 137.6E:     050 (090):  045  (085):  989
+24:  16/1200: 14.6S 137.6E:     055 (105):  045  (085):  989
+36:  17/0000: 15.0S 137.4E:     065 (120):  050  (095):  982
+48:  17/1200: 15.3S 137.1E:     080 (145):  060  (110):  977
+60:  18/0000: 15.6S 136.9E:     105 (190):  060  (110):  976
+72:  18/1200: 15.9S 136.6E:     120 (225):  055  (100):  980
+96:  19/1200: 15.9S 134.9E:     150 (280):  025  (045):  998
+120: 20/1200: 15.6S 132.1E:     195 (355):  020  (035): 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 09U has moved over open water and is likely to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Recent motion has been towards the
southeast. 

Position is based on predominantly on Gove radar, surface observations and
several recent microwave passes, with good confidence.  

Intensity remains at 40 knots based upon earlier ASCAT and observations. During
the afternoon an exposed low-level centre was evident on satellite imagery with
deeper convection well displaced to the west with a subsequent fall in DT
numbers. Over the last few hours deep convection has redeveloped closer to the
low level centre and the DT number has begun to increase again.  Dvorak
analysis: DT 2.0 using a curved band while a shear pattern provides a higher
number. MET/PAT 1.5/2.0 based on a S trend, with FT/CI=2.0. Objective aids are
not yet available.  

Gales are estimated in northern quadrants based upon early ASCAT and
observations. 

The low has moved over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria
(SST=30-31C) and is in a very moist environment, however In the short term
development is likely to be hindered by continued high easterly wind shear.
Conditions should improve as the system moves further south and 09U is forecast
to reach tropical cyclone strength during Saturday. The passage of an upper
trough during Saturday and Sunday to the south of 09U is expected to improve
the poleward outflow which may aid further development. The system is forecast
to reach category 2 intensity on Sunday  although the slow movement of the
system prior to landfall allows time for potential intensification to category
3 intensity closer to landfall. Once over land 09U is expected to weaken
quickly. 

The system is currently moving steadily southeast under the influence of a
monsoon surge. This movement is forecast to slow within 12 hours as a complex
steering pattern develops, with the monsoon flow initially balanced by a
mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded by a mid-level trough which
allows the system to drift slowly southwest to eventually make landfall on the
southwest Gulf on Monday. By Tuesday a new mid-level ridge develops to the
south and this will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of
the Northern Territory.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1930 UTC.

 

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 15	tropical low	13.5S	137.2E	30
+6hr	4 am March 16	tropical low	13.9S	137.5E	60
+12hr	10 am March 16	tropical low	14.1S	137.6E	80
+18hr	4 pm March 16	1	14.4S	137.6E	90
+24hr	10 pm March 16	1	14.6S	137.6E	105
+36hr	10 am March 17	2	15.0S	137.4E	120
+48hr	10 pm March 17	2	15.3S	137.1E	145
+60hr	10 am March 18	2	15.6S	136.9E	190
+72hr	10 pm March 18	2	15.9S	136.6E	225

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150121ZMAR2024//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

151200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 137.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 137.1E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

160000Z --- 14.0S 137.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

161200Z --- 14.5S 137.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

170000Z --- 14.9S 137.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

171200Z --- 15.3S 136.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

181200Z --- 15.7S 136.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z --- 15.9S 134.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 137.2E. 15MAR24.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM

EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT

07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 997 MB.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 14 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.

2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 150130).//

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WDPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN)   
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 137.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 367 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT, OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM 
THE GOVE AIRPORT RADAR DEPICTS A FAIRLY DEFINED LLCC JUST NORTHEAST 
OF GROOTE EYLANDT AIRPORT, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL 
AS RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
GROOTE EYLANDT AIRPORT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS 
AND SLP NEAR 999 MB. HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NGAYAWILI 
(12.0S 135.5E) REVEAL SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 43 KNOTS 
(10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CAPE WESSEL (11.0S 
136.7E) INDICATES 30 TO 40 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH 
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXPANDING EQUATORWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES (30 TO 31 C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM 
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. TC 19P WILL
INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM LAND WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION STEERING TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL TURN WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 72. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND,
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 150600Z
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES (EPS AND GEFS) ALSO SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE SHARP 
INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU 36 AND ALSO THE RAPID WEAKENING
PHASE AFTER TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THE
150600Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, IT DOES SHOW 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN