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AXAU01 ADRM 151935 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1935 UTC 15/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.8S Longitude: 137.5E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: southeast (136 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0000: 14.2S 137.7E: 040 (070): 040 (075): 993 +12: 16/0600: 14.5S 137.7E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 990 +18: 16/1200: 14.6S 137.6E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 989 +24: 16/1800: 14.9S 137.4E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986 +36: 17/0600: 15.3S 137.2E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 983 +48: 17/1800: 15.6S 137.1E: 095 (170): 060 (110): 978 +60: 18/0600: 15.8S 137.1E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 978 +72: 18/1800: 16.1S 136.7E: 135 (250): 045 (085): 990 +96: 19/1800: 16.3S 134.9E: 160 (295): 025 (045): 1001 +120: 20/1800: 16.1S 132.2E: 200 (370): 020 (035): 1004 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U is showing signs of development via persistent deep convection near centre and improved upper ventilation. The low level centre is located just to east or just under the eastern edge of deepest convection. Centre location is based on nearby surface observations and radar data. Confidence is fair. Intensity is at 40 knots based upon earlier ASCAT and observations. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 using a curved band (shear pattern would give a higher number). MET3.0 on 24hr D trend, adjusted to PT2.5. FT/CI=2.5. Objective aids are: ADT 39kt, AiDT 35kt, DPRINT 33kt, MW Sounders 55kt, SATCON 52 kt (1-min average). Gales are estimated in northern quadrants based upon early ASCAT and observations. Recent motion has been slowly towards the southeast over warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria (SST=30-31C). Over the next 24 hours, the steering influence will shift from being driven by the monsoon surge to a complex combination of the mid-level trough and ridge the south. The overall effect would be a slow drift in a general south to southwest direction till it makes landfall on the southwest Gulf on Monday. A new mid-level ridge develops to the south on Tuesday, which will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. 08U is developing against a moderate easterly wind shear (CIMSS~17kt) supported by strong low level moist monsoonal flow. The passage of an upper trough later today is expected to improve the poleward outflow which would aid further development. The system is forecast to reach cyclone intensity in next 6 hours and likely to become a category 2 intensity later tonight. Given that it would be moving slowly prior to landfall, there is potential intensification for 09U to reach category 3 intensity before landfall. Once over land, 09U is expected to weaken quickly. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am March 16 tropical low 13.8S 137.5E 45 +6hr 10 am March 16 1 14.2S 137.7E 70 +12hr 4 pm March 16 1 14.5S 137.7E 90 +18hr 10 pm March 16 1 14.6S 137.6E 100 +24hr 4 am March 17 2 14.9S 137.4E 110 +36hr 4 pm March 17 2 15.3S 137.2E 130 +48hr 4 am March 18 2 15.6S 137.1E 170 +60hr 4 pm March 18 2 15.8S 137.1E 215 +72hr 4 am March 19 1 16.1S 136.7E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.1S 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.7S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.3S 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.6S 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.1S 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.6S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.8S 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 137.7E. 15MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 137.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 19P (NINETEEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AFTER MOVING OVER WATER AND IS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN THE EIR, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151814Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE INITIAL PHASE OF MICROWAVE EYE DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST SIDE. HOWEVER, COMPARISON WITH THE 36GHZ IMAGE REFLECTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT TOWARDS THE WEST WITH HEIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RADAR DATA FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA STATION. THE SYSTEM IS AT THE FAR RANGE OF THE RADAR AND THUS SEEING THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE DEPICTION, BUT THE LLCC IS LIKELY DISPLACED FURTHER EAST, THUS THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES OF T2.5, COMBINED WITH THE ADT, AIDT, DPRINT AND DMINT ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, HIGH OHC EXCEEDING 100 KJ PER CM3 AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR, AS FILAMENTS OF CIRRUS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MESOSCALE REDUCTION IN SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE RAW ADT VALUES HAVE SHOT UP TO 3.4 AS OF 1830Z, WHICH MUST BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS MAY BE THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) SCENARIO. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, GENERALLY TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 151630Z CIMSS ADT: 38 KTS AT 151800Z CIMSS DPRINT: 35 KTS AT 151800Z CIMSS DMINT: 38 KTS AT 151503Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NINETEEN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY CURVE TO A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH, OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EVEN MORE, DOWN TO JUST TWO KNOTS OR SO, AFTER TAU 36 AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AS NOTED ABOVE, WE MAY BE SEEING IN FIRST HINTS OF A POSSIBLE RI SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF OHC TO DRAW FROM. IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR AT THE MESOSCALE LEVEL, RI IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A FAST PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, BUT JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF RI FOR NOW. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AT TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT TRANSITS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AGREEING ON A GENTLY ARCING TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST WHICH TURNS WESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THE TRACK ENVELOPE IS MARKED BY NAVGEM TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE NORTH AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS ABOUT 110NM AT LANDFALL, OPENING UP TO ROUGHLY 150NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH BOTH VERSIONS OF THE COAMPS-TC MARKING THE LOW-END OF THE ENVELOPE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT JUST 55 KNOTS, WHILE THE GFS SHIPS AND HAFS-A PEAK THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO 85 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RIPA, RI45 AND RI25 RI AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED ON THIS CYCLE, ALSO PEAKING AS HIGH AS 85 KNOTS. LASTLY, THE GFS, COAMPS-TC AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ALL SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG INTENSIFICATION UP THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF RI. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT REMAINS BELOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-16 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 ADRM 160102 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0102 UTC 16/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 13.8S Longitude: 137.8E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: east (094 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0600: 14.1S 138.0E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 989 +12: 16/1200: 14.5S 137.8E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 990 +18: 16/1800: 14.8S 137.6E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 986 +24: 17/0000: 15.1S 137.4E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 986 +36: 17/1200: 15.5S 137.2E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 979 +48: 18/0000: 15.8S 137.2E: 090 (165): 070 (130): 970 +60: 18/1200: 16.0S 137.1E: 110 (205): 055 (100): 982 +72: 19/0000: 16.3S 136.5E: 130 (240): 040 (075): 994 +96: 20/0000: 16.6S 134.4E: 145 (270): 020 (035): 1003 +120: 21/0000: 16.6S 131.4E: 205 (380): 020 (035): 1004 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U is approaching tropical cyclone intensity, with a vigorous low level circulation and convection continuing to develop and wrap around the centre. There is still some evidence of easterly shear operating, with a strong temperature gradient on the eastern side of the central dense overcast, but the low level centre is now located under the convection. Centre location is based on animated satellite imagery, microwave imagery, and radar. Confidence is fair to good. Dvorak analysis: Curved band wrap of 0.4 to 0.5 gives DT 2.5. MET is not yet available with the system having only recently moved over water. FT/CI = 2.5. Objective aids are: ADT 49kt, AiDT 40kt, DPRINT 40kt, DMINT 38kt, MW Sounders 52kt, SATCON 50 kt (all 1-min average). Intensity is analysed at 40 knots, with gales currently restricted to northern quadrants only, which is supported by recent HSCAT scatterometry. Recent motion has been slowly towards the east under the influence of monsoonal flow. Over the next 24 hours, the system is expected to turn to the south and then the south-southwest as mid-level ridging to the east and southwest become the dominant steering influences. This pattern should see the system continue on a south-southwest track, albeit slowly, until it crosses the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. There is high uncertainty in the timing of this crossing, with guidance ranging from Sunday to Monday. Beyond that, the mid-level ridge to the south is expected to strengthen and steer the system west across inland parts of the Northern Territory through next week. 09U is developing against moderate easterly wind shear, estimated at 15-20 knots from CIMSS upper wind analysis. This is being offset by otherwise favourable conditions; abundant low and mid-level moisture, and high SSTs (30-31C) over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone in the next 6 hours. A southerly track should steer the system away from the monsoonal westerlies into a lighter shear regime over the next 24 hours, and standard development is forecast once it reaches tropical cyclone intensity. This would see it reach category 3 intensity prior to forecast landfall on Monday. However, if the system moves more quickly and hence crosses the coast earlier, it will have less time to develop and the landfall intensity may be lower. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0730 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am March 16 tropical low 13.8S 137.8E 35 +6hr 4 pm March 16 1 14.1S 138.0E 65 +12hr 10 pm March 16 1 14.5S 137.8E 80 +18hr 4 am March 17 2 14.8S 137.6E 95 +24hr 10 am March 17 2 15.1S 137.4E 100 +36hr 10 pm March 17 2 15.5S 137.2E 130 +48hr 10 am March 18 3 15.8S 137.2E 165 +60hr 10 pm March 18 2 16.0S 137.1E 205 +72hr 10 am March 19 tropical low 16.3S 136.5E 240 -
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WTPS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 137.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 137.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.4S 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.0S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5S 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.8S 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.2S 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.4S 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 137.9E. 16MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 137.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NINETEEN) CONTINUES TO STEADILY ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION STEADILY ORGANIZING INTO A BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE, AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152202Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK, NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH ALIGNED WITH THE RADAR-DERIVED CENTER OF ROTATION. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE 36GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A PRONOUNCED VORTEX TILT, INDUCED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER) IN THE 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, A HOT OFF THE PRESSES 160027Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALED WINDS UP TO 45-50 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION AT 35 KNOTS OR LESS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT AGAINST MODERATE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STORM-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS FROM CIMSS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THAT THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS GENERATING EASTWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR, BUT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DECREASED MESOSCALE SHEAR VALUES. OTHER THAN THE SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, WTIH VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND ASCAT DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 152203Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 152330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST STEADILY BUILDS AND EXTENDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO ORGANIZE A VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX. AS NOTED ABOVE, SIGNS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR THAT THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE FACE OF THE SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACHIEVE AXISYMMETRIZATION AND EMBARK ON A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR RI TO BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TAU 12, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING A PEAK OF AT LEAST 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AN INCREASE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL INHIBIT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TC AS IT CROSSES THE SHORE. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS ASHORE, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS AND WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE OBSERVED THE DETERMINISTIC OR ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND IN THE TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 36. THE TRACK ENVELOPE IS 100NM AT LANDFALL, EXPANDING TO 115NM AT TAU 96, DEFINED BY THE NAVGEM ON THE EAST AND SOUTH, AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE NORTH AND WEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE MODEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS AND UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF, HAFS-A, AND COAMPS-TC BASICALLY GIVING UP ON THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING A LID ON INTENSITY, PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 50-65 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS (NAVGEM) RAMPS UP THE PEAK TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 48, WHILE SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INCLUDING RIPA, RICN AND FRIA CONTINUE TO TRIGGER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES WELL ABOVE THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT BELOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI AIDS. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-16 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.0S 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.6S 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0S 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.2S 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.6S 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.8S 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 137.6E. 16MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 137.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) SHOWING DEEP, PERSISTENT CENTRALIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURING THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TRANSVERSE BANDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH CIRRUS FILAMENTS FLOWING EQUATORWARD ALOFT. SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION FILL OUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVABLE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 160600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PERSISTENCE OF A 160022Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE, AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 160437Z CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 160530Z CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 160730Z CIMSS DPRINT: 44 KTS AT 160600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19P (MEGAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD (TAU 00 TO TAU 12) TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD (TAU 12 TO TAU 36) FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK, A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVING LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A MOIST MID LEVEL (RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 70 PCT), OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WEAKER FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36, WHICH IS THE MAJOR RESTRAINT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THIS INTERVAL. HOWEVER, WITH ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO NEAR 70 KTS BY TAU 24, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK, WITH ALL JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGESTING A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 48. AT TAU 48, ALL MEMBERS THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 96NM IS PRESENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GALWEM BY TAU 48, LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ASHORE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDES INDICATION THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE OBSERVED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THOUGH, THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE AIDS IS NEAR 30 TO 40 PERCENT. INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE UNIFORM IN NATURE, INDICATING A RISE IN INTENSITY TO A PEAK PRIOR TO TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OVER LAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72 - 96 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72 - 96 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-17 08:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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全球热带气旋监测公报
澳大利亚附近海域热带气旋“梅甘”生成
时 间：16日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“梅甘”，MEGAN
中心位置：南纬14.5度、东经137.6度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚北部地区达尔文东偏南方向约760公里的海面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“梅甘”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“梅甘”将原地少动或缓慢向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2024年03月16日14时00分）
最后于 2024-03-16 20:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -