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WTPS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 137.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 137.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.9S 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.3S 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.6S 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.8S 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.6S 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 137.1E. 17MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.4S 137.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 406 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT, AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND A 170919Z RCM-3 SAR PASS SHOWED THAT TC 19P HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, PERFORMING A CLOCKWISE PIROUETTE, AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERED IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN. A 171642Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOW STARTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS AS THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT. ADDITIONALLY, THE ATMS IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CORE. THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE LINED UP WELL WITH BOTH THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE EARLIER SAR PASS, SUPPORTS THE 1200Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS, EVEN THOUGH THE SAR INDICATED WINDS AS HIGH AS 123 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE DEEMED AS NOT REPRESENTATIVE AND LIKELY DUE TO TRANSIENT MESOSCALE EFFECTS. REGARDLESS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 1800Z IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF THE BULK OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES BELOW. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, DEEP-LAYER AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP SHARPLY OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOUNDING DATA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR VECTOR, WITH THE PULSING CONVECTION FAILING TO PUSH OUTFLOW AS FAR EASTWARD AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL NER TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS ADRM: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 91 KTS AT 171800Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 171800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SID OF THE NER CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THE PACE OF ADVANCE, THOUGH SOME SLOWING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE LLCC TRACKS OVER THE SIR EDWARD PELLEW GROUP. LANDFALL ON THE MAINLAND COAST IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK OVER TO A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 19P LIKELY PEAKED OUT AT 95-100 KNOTS AROUND 0900Z, PER THE SAR IMAGERY, AND IS NOW STARTING TO WEAKEN SLOWLY, AS IT STARTS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STEADILY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, PARTICULARLY IN THE SUB-OUTFLOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD WILL NOT REACT IMMEDIATELY TO THE DESTRUCTION OF THE VORTEX, THUS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 90 KNOTS INTENSITY UP THROUGH LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE HOWEVER, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 19P. FULL DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AND POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING FROM THE TAU 00, REACHING 30 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE GFS VERSION OF SHIPS, WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12, THEN FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE PACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 ADRM 180156 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0156 UTC 18/03/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan Identifier: 09U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.7S Longitude: 137.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south (190 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 970 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/0600: 15.9S 136.9E: 030 (055): 070 (130): 969 +12: 18/1200: 16.2S 136.7E: 045 (085): 060 (110): 977 +18: 18/1800: 16.5S 136.4E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 988 +24: 19/0000: 16.8S 136.1E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 992 +36: 19/1200: 17.2S 135.0E: 070 (135): 030 (055): 995 +48: 20/0000: 17.1S 133.5E: 090 (165): 025 (045): 998 +60: 20/1200: 16.9S 131.9E: 115 (210): 025 (045): 1000 +72: 21/0000: 16.6S 130.1E: 135 (250): 025 (045): 1001 +96: 22/0000: 16.3S 127.2E: 170 (315): 020 (035): 1002 +120: 23/0000: 16.2S 125.1E: 220 (405): 020 (035): 1001 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at category 3 (75kn) intensity to cross the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast within 3-9 hours. Position based on a combination of Mornington Is radar (edge), visible imagery, Centre Is observations and earlier SAR pass with high confidence noting some offset from shear consideration and an eye is yet to emerge. Intensity is analysed at 75 knots based on the range of inputs: subjective Dvorak, objective aids, SAR imagery and surface observations. Centre Island is now experiencing the southwestern eye wall and winds have been consistent 50kn since 21UTC and pressure now 982hPa; SAR imagery at 2037UTC has higher winds - 90kn in northern quadrants and 70kn in southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT=5.0 from embedded centre pattern in white; MET=4.0 based on Steady 24h trend adjusted to 4.5. FT/CI=4.5. Objective aids are: SATCON 90kn, ADT 67kn, AiDT 74 kn, DPRINT 65kn (all 1-min average). Wind structure based upon many inputs: SAR, ASCAT, HSCAT, SMAP and SMOS, and supported by observations. Motion has been slowly to the south southwest and will make landfall on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today. Mid-level ridging to the east and to a lesser extent to the south appear to be the dominant steering influences. From Tuesday the mid-level ridge to the south is expected to strengthen and steer the system west across inland parts of the Northern Territory as a tropical low through the remainder of the week. Slow development has occurred despite the ongoing northeasterly wind shear (CIMSS 22 kn), but otherwise favourable conditions; abundant low and mid-level moisture, good poleward outflow and high SSTs (30-31C). Once over land Megan should weaken quickly and be below tropical cyclone 24h later. Heavy rainfall will accompany the low as it tracks over the NOrthern Territory in the following days. At this stage reintensification over water is not expected in the next 7 days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am March 18 3 15.7S 137.1E 30 +6hr 4 pm March 18 3 15.9S 136.9E 55 +12hr 10 pm March 18 2 16.2S 136.7E 85 +18hr 4 am March 19 1 16.5S 136.4E 100 +24hr 10 am March 19 tropical low 16.8S 136.1E 120 +36hr 10 pm March 19 tropical low 17.2S 135.0E 135 +48hr 10 am March 20 tropical low 17.1S 133.5E 165 +60hr 10 pm March 20 tropical low 16.9S 131.9E 210 +72hr 10 am March 21 tropical low 16.6S 130.1E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 137.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 137.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.2S 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.7S 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.1S 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.2S 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 136.8E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 137.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 401 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTH ISLAND AND MOVING DOWN OVER CENTRE ISLAND AT ANALYSIS TIME. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS, WHICH IS BEING ERODED ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO PERSISTENT AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS, ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR, AND EXTRAPOLATION OF WELL-DEFINED EYE IN A 172027Z RCM-2 SAR NORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTION (NRCS) IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AGENCY FIXES, AND IN LIGHT OF THE RAPIDLY DECREASING ADT, AIDT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEGRADATION IN THE STRUCTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRE ISLAND SHOW A PEAK SUSTAINED 10MIN WIND OF 52 KTS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 68 KTS, WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURE READING THUS FAR OF 981MB. THE SAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND THUS WINDS AT CENTRE ISLAND LIKELY WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AFTER THE STORM PASSES. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND. EASTERLY SHEAR IS QUICKLY INCREASING ALONG WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR OFF THE CONTINENT, LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS ADRM: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 172330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19P WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE MAINLAND COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AFTER PASSING JUST EAST OR DIRECTLY OVER CENTRE ISLAND THEN MOVING ASHORE IN THE MCARTHUR RIVER DELTA REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INLAND, PASSING CLOSE ABOARD TO BORROLOOLA, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE 172027Z SAR PASS SUGGESTS THAT TC 19P REACHED 100 KNOTS INTENSITY AS EARLY AS 1200Z AND THEN MAINTAINED THAT INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST EIGHT HOURS AND THE 1200Z AND 1800Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND INGESTION OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE CONTINENT INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LED TO A FAIRLY QUICK DROP-OFF IN INTENSITY UP TO THE CURRENT ANALYSIS TIME. SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ONLY GET WORSE MOVING FORWARD AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SCENARIO, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD HAS ALSO LESSENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“梅甘”将向澳大利亚北部地区沿海靠近
时 间：18日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“梅甘”，MEGAN
中心位置：南纬15.7度、东经137.1度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：970百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚北部地区博洛罗拉（Borroloola）东北方向约100公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“梅甘”由14级减弱到13级
预报结论：“梅甘”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向南偏西方向缓慢移动，穿过卡奔塔利亚湾（Carpentaria）后逐渐向澳大利亚北部地区沿海靠近，将于今天夜间在上述沿海登陆，登陆后强度逐渐减弱并转为南偏西方向移动。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月18日08时00分）
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AXAU01 ADRM 180717 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0717 UTC 18/03/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan Identifier: 09U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 16.0S Longitude: 136.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (200 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 968 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 95 nm (175 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/1200: 16.3S 136.7E: 030 (060): 060 (110): 977 +12: 18/1800: 16.6S 136.5E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 988 +18: 19/0000: 16.9S 136.2E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +24: 19/0600: 17.0S 135.7E: 060 (115): 030 (055): 997 +36: 19/1800: 17.2S 134.3E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 997 +48: 20/0600: 17.0S 132.7E: 090 (165): 025 (045): 999 +60: 20/1800: 16.8S 131.0E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 1000 +72: 21/0600: 16.5S 129.4E: 125 (230): 020 (035): 1001 +96: 22/0600: 16.3S 126.6E: 165 (305): 020 (035): 1001 +120: 23/0600: 16.4S 124.8E: 200 (370): 020 (035): 1001 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at category 3 (75 kn) intensity made landfall at 0600 UTC on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Position based on a combination of visible imagery, AMSR2 microwave at 05UTC, and Centre Is observations with high confidence. An eye is yet to emerge on IR/Vis imagery and the AMSR2 shows partial eye wall with deepest convection northwest of the centre. This suggests that Centre Is likely experienced close to the maximum winds in the NW eye wall: peak 10 min. of 70 kn (131 km/h) and gusts to 92 kn (170 km/h) with min pressure 976hPa generally consistent with the estimated TC max wind of 75 kn and central pressure 968 hPa. This is somewhat lower than the SAR at 2037UTC: 90 kn in northern quadrants and 70 kn in southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT=5.0 from embedded centre pattern in white; MET=4.5 based on Steady 24h trend not adjusted. FT/CI=4.5. Objective aids are: SATCON 68 kn, ADT 63 kn, AiDT 69 kn, DPRINT 63 kn (all 1-min average) but now that it is overland these will be the last values. Wind structure based upon many inputs: SAR, ASCAT, HSCAT, SMAP and SMOS, and supported by observations. Motion will be slowly to the southwest overland. From Tuesday the mid-level ridge to the south is expected to strengthen and steer the system west across inland parts of the Northern Territory as a tropical low through the remainder of the week. Slow development has occurred despite the ongoing moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear but otherwise favourable conditions; abundant low and mid-level moisture, good poleward outflow and high SSTs (30-31C). Now over land Megan should weaken quickly and be below tropical cyclone within 18-24h. Heavy rainfall will accompany the low as it tracks over the Northern Territory in the following days. At this stage reintensification over water is not expected in the next 7 days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm March 18 3 16.0S 136.9E 30 +6hr 10 pm March 18 2 16.3S 136.7E 60 +12hr 4 am March 19 1 16.6S 136.5E 80 +18hr 10 am March 19 tropical low 16.9S 136.2E 100 +24hr 4 pm March 19 tropical low 17.0S 135.7E 115 +36hr 4 am March 20 tropical low 17.2S 134.3E 130 +48hr 4 pm March 20 tropical low 17.0S 132.7E 165 +60hr 4 am March 21 tropical low 16.8S 131.0E 190 +72hr 4 pm March 21 tropical low 16.5S 129.4E 230 -
WTPS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.6S 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.2S 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.5S 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.5S 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 136.6E. 18MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (MEGAN) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 180500Z, ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA, SOUTH OF CENTRE ISLAND. 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN TURN WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 977 MB.// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“梅甘”登陆后强度逐渐减弱
时 间：18日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“梅甘”，MEGAN
中心位置：南纬16.0度、东经136.9度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：968百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚北部卡奔塔利亚湾西南部沿海地区
变化过程：过去24小时，“梅甘”由14级减弱到13级
预报结论：受“梅甘”影响，卡奔塔利亚湾南部沿岸海域将有10~12级风，阵风可达13~14级，澳大利亚北部地区及昆士兰州部分地区将出现小到中雨，部分地区大到暴雨。未来24小时，“梅甘”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月18日14时00分）
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AXAU01 ADRM 181246 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1245 UTC 18/03/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Megan Identifier: 09U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 16.2S Longitude: 136.8E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (216 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h) Central Pressure: 981 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: n/a Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/1800: 16.5S 136.6E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 988 +12: 19/0000: 16.9S 136.3E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 994 +18: 19/0600: 17.2S 136.0E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 996 +24: 19/1200: 17.4S 135.5E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 994 +36: 20/0000: 17.5S 134.2E: 070 (130): 030 (050): 996 +48: 20/1200: 17.3S 132.8E: 085 (155): 025 (045): 998 +60: 21/0000: 17.1S 131.0E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 999 +72: 21/1200: 16.8S 129.8E: 125 (230): 020 (035): 999 +96: 22/1200: 16.6S 127.6E: 170 (310): 020 (035): 999 +120: 23/1200: 16.6S 126.1E: 200 (370): 020 (035): 998 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at category 3 (75 kn) intensity made landfall at 0600 UTC on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Currently, the weakening system lies some 30km inland, and the low level centre position is becoming more uncertain as the cloud signature loses coherence. The persistence of deep layer northeasterly shear is inferred from the sharper IR temperature gradient in that quadrant. Position is based on proximal surface observations, peripheral radar data, and extrapolation. Dvorak analysis is now not applicable with the centre over land, with most objective guidance similar. Intensity is analysed at 55 knots based on an inland decay model adjusted to accommodate surrounding observations, combined with numerical model guidance. Wind structure is now also largely based on surrounding observations and model guidance. Slow southwest motion is expected to continue in the short term, and Megan should weaken below tropical cyclone intensity during the next 12 hours. From Tuesday, a mid-level ridge to the south is expected to strengthen and steer the system west across the Northern Territory. Heavy rainfall will accompany the low as it tracks over northern Australia in the following days. The low may approach the Kimberley coast late in the week, but reintensification over water is not expected in the next 7 days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1930 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm March 18 2 16.2S 136.8E 35 +6hr 4 am March 19 1 16.5S 136.6E 65 +12hr 10 am March 19 tropical low 16.9S 136.3E 85 +18hr 4 pm March 19 tropical low 17.2S 136.0E 100 +24hr 10 pm March 19 tropical low 17.4S 135.5E 110 +36hr 10 am March 20 tropical low 17.5S 134.2E 130 +48hr 10 pm March 20 tropical low 17.3S 132.8E 155 +60hr 10 am March 21 tropical low 17.1S 131.0E 190 +72hr 10 pm March 21 tropical low 16.8S 129.8E 230 -
AXAU01 ADRM 181845 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1845 UTC 18/03/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Megan Identifier: 09U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 16.5S Longitude: 136.6E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 989 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 19/0000: 16.9S 136.3E: 040 (070): 030 (055): 992 +12: 19/0600: 17.2S 136.0E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 993 +18: 19/1200: 17.4S 135.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 994 +24: 19/1800: 17.4S 134.9E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 995 +36: 20/0600: 17.3S 133.6E: 075 (140): 025 (045): 997 +48: 20/1800: 17.2S 132.0E: 090 (170): 025 (045): 998 +60: 21/0600: 17.0S 130.4E: 120 (225): 020 (035): 1000 +72: 21/1800: 16.7S 129.2E: 145 (270): 020 (035): 999 +96: 22/1800: 16.6S 127.1E: 185 (340): 020 (035): 999 +120: 23/1800: 16.6S 125.8E: 200 (370): 020 (035): 998 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at category 3 (75 kn) intensity made landfall at 0600 UTC on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Megan continues to weaken as it tracks inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, though the low level centre position is becoming more uncertain as the cloud signature loses coherence. Position is based on proximal surface observations, peripheral radar data, and extrapolation. Dvorak analysis is now not applicable with the centre over land, with most objective guidance similar. Intensity is now estimated to be at around 40 knots based on an inland decay model. All surrounding observation sites are no longer showing gale force winds as the system tracks further inland. The system is expected to be downgraded to a tropical low during this morning before it tracks west through the Northern Territory over the next few days under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Heavy rainfall will accompany the low as it tracks over northern Australia in the following days. The low may approach the Kimberley coast late in the week, but reintensification over water is not expected in the next 7 days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am March 19 1 16.5S 136.6E 45 +6hr 10 am March 19 tropical low 16.9S 136.3E 70 +12hr 4 pm March 19 tropical low 17.2S 136.0E 90 +18hr 10 pm March 19 tropical low 17.4S 135.5E 100 +24hr 4 am March 20 tropical low 17.4S 134.9E 110 +36hr 4 pm March 20 tropical low 17.3S 133.6E 140 +48hr 4 am March 21 tropical low 17.2S 132.0E 170 +60hr 4 pm March 21 tropical low 17.0S 130.4E 225 +72hr 4 am March 22 tropical low 16.7S 129.2E 270 -
IDD20150 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34 Issued at 7:23 am ACST on Tuesday 19 March 2024 Headline: Megan now downgraded to a tropical low as it tracks inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast Areas Affected: Warning Zone None. Watch Zone None. Cancelled Zone Bing Bong to the NT/Qld Border, extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River. Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan at 6:30 am ACST: Intensity: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South 136.5 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres south southeast of Borroloola and 55 kilometres west northwest of Robinson River. Movement: south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour. Megan has now been downgraded to a tropical low inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, south of Borroloola. Ex-tropical cyclone Megan is forecast to track towards the west through inland parts of the Northern Territory over the next few days. Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall at category 3 intensity on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, southeast of Port McArthur, at 3:30 pm ACST. The highest wind gusts recorded were from Centre Island with wind gusts to 170 km/h (3:00 pm ACST) and Borroloola with wind gusts to 81 km/h (4:06 pm ACST). Hazards: HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS will continue in the Carpentaria forecast district, while extending into the northern Barkly during today. A Severe Weather Warning is current and a Flood Watch continues for inland parts of the NT and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers. Tides will be continue to be HIGHER THAN NORMAL along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. Recommended Action: The Northern Territory Emergency Service advise: For the communities in the area: - Stay informed - threat is reduced - Monitor conditions - Do not enter flood waters - Keep clear of power lines - Be careful of fallen trees, damaged buildings and debris - Take extra care on the roads - Drive slowly and be aware of emergency service personal - Be aware of potentially contaminated water supplies Next Advice: No further advices will be issued for this system. This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210 A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am March 19 tropical low 16.7S 136.5E 45 +6hr 1 pm March 19 tropical low 17.0S 136.2E 70 +12hr 7 pm March 19 tropical low 17.3S 135.8E 80 +18hr 1 am March 20 tropical low 17.4S 135.3E 90 +24hr 7 am March 20 tropical low 17.4S 134.6E 100 +36hr 7 pm March 20 tropical low 17.3S 133.2E 125 +48hr 7 am March 21 tropical low 17.2S 131.6E 160 +60hr 7 pm March 21 tropical low 16.9S 130.1E 220 +72hr 7 am March 22 tropical low 16.7S 129.0E 275