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WTXS21 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852Z MAR 24// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 100900)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4S 39.5E TO 21.3S 35.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E.// NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 101000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/101000Z-101800ZMAR2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851ZMAR2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100731Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND PARA. 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-10 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 101315 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2024/03/10 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.8 E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/11 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 75 36H: 2024/03/12 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 0 72H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35 120H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND HALF A TURN FORMED AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL CONVECTIVE CORE HAS BEGUN TO FORM, ALTHOUGH STILL OPEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE, AS EVIDENCED BY THE 1049Z AMSR-2 IMAGE. THESE ELEMENTS SHOW THAT NAMING STAGE IS PROBABLY VERY CLOSE, BEARING IN MIND THAT WINDS WERE ALREADY REACHING 30KT AT 06UTC. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SOLID OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT A 30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, BUT LOCAL PEAKS NEAR 35KT ARE VERY LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SOME PARTS OF THE LAND OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, BUT THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AND THEREFORE THE STEERING FLOW'S ELEVATION (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD ENABLE A MORE MERIDIAN TRACK ALONG THE COAST, WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INLAND). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ENABLING IT TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING THIS SUNDAY EVENING, DESPITE SOME WIND SHEAR STILL PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY ON MONDAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD THEN BECOME EXCELLENT, WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE, AND THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS VERY HIGH. INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AT FIRST OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE RAPID FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE REACHED THIS SUNDAY EVENING. LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE BY TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE CORE CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD QUITE RAPIDLY RESUME DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND ON WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY, INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE. - WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA OF LANDFALL. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE PROVINCE. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
最后于 2024-03-10 21:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 101837 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/10 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.2 E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 100 24H: 2024/03/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 480 SW: 345 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75 120H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 545 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED-BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.0- IS POSSIBLE AND ARGUES IN FAVOR OF A NAMING. THE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER OF MADAGASCAR THUS ANNOUNCED THE NAMING IN FILIPO OF THE SYSTEM 08-20232024 AT 16UTC THIS SUNDAY. WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40KT, FILIPO HAS REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, FILIPO IS TRACKING WEST THEN WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE INLAND AREA, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE INLAND INCURSION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE ALTITUDE OF THE DIRECTING FLOW (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY ALONG THE COAST, WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INLAND). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING IT TO EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR STRESS, AN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT IS ALSO IMPROVING. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE CORE CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND IN WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY, INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER WATERS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOSS OF FILIPO'S TROPICAL STRUCTURE, STARTING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE. - WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA OF LANDFALL. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE PROVINCE. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AT THE JUNCTION OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES OVER THE NEXT 12-24H IN CONNECTION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE CURVED BAND. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851ZMAR2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 38.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 38.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.0S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.5S 36.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.5S 34.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.7S 34.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 26.8S 35.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 32.0S 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 36.8S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 38.2E. 10MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100900).// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.8S 38.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM SIZED SYSTEM IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH FORMATIVE BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES CAN ALSO BE SEEN ALONG THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE FEEDING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 101525Z SSMIS IMAGE SUITE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW REFLECTION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: COLD AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOW LEVELS. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND EXTEND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY SOUTHWESTWARD, INTO LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE SOUTH OF BEIRA JUST BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 17S WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE LANDFALL. DRY AIR INTRUSION AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED MOZAMBIQUE TERRAIN WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. TC 17S WILL SPLASH BACK OVER WATER IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU 60. MOISTURE INFUSION AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS AT TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96, WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 120, TC 17S WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM, GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO MERE 93NM BY TAU 72 AND 175NM BY TAU 120; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMATIVE SYSTEM, ITS TRACK OVER LAND, AND ITS SUBTROPICAL AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITIONS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR- TO EXTENDED-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-11 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 110039 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 37.4 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95 24H: 2024/03/12 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 36H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 95 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 130 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0 72H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75 120H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 545 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 400 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 270 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 120 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND OF CLOUDS HAS CONTINUED, BUT THE TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE. THE CURVED BAND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, BUT AN ANALYSIS IN T OF 3.0- IS STILL VALID. FILIPO THEREFORE MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 40KT, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE 1826UTC PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH. THE GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2322UTC ALSO SHOWS A PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING STRUCTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK OVER THE SHORT TERM, FILIPO IS TRACKING WEST THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A 6-HOUR UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDFALL. MOREOVER, IN LINE WITH THIS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING, THE EXTENT OF THE INLAND INCURSION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE ALTITUDE OF THE STEERING FLOW (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A MERIDIAN TRACK ALONG THE COAST, WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INTO THE LAND). SUBSEQUENTLY, THE TRACK WAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE, BUT FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR STRESS, AN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT IS ALSO IMPROVING. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE CORE CONSOLIDATES. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND IN WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS, FILIPO COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY, WITH THE INTERACTION OF A MID-LATITUDE JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER WATERS, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE. - WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA OF LANDFALL. - RAINFALL: 150-250 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE PROVINCE. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 110650 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.3 E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 100 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0 36H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 0 60H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 72H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100 120H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 305 SW: 370 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 230 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE START OF A DECREASE OF THE DEEP NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING IN THE LATEST IMAGES. INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 40KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, LATE SMAP DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER (45KT). LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST, WITH FILIPO TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AND REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. INDEED, WITH THE RAPID INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (AND THEREFORE INTENSIFY LESS) IF IT EMERGES AT A WEAKER STAGE. THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST RUNS BY GFS (RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH WEAKER INTENSITY) AND IFS (LATER TRANSITION WITH STRONGER INTENSITY). THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE, NORTH OF VILANCULOS. - WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON , AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER THE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST UP TO WEDNESDAY AND THE EVACUATION OVER SEA. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS TONGIHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM AND LOCALLY 300MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, OVER INHAMBANE AND GAZA PROVINCE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE NEARBY PROVINCES. - WAVES OF 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. - STORM SURGE UP TO 50 CM TO 1M CLOSE TO THE LANDING. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 37.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 37.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.8S 36.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.7S 34.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.2S 34.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.1S 34.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 29.6S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 34.9S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 37.0E. 11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 37.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 198 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE AND IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A PARTIAL 110226Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT REFLECTING THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE IMPROVED BANDING, WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30 C). HOWEVER, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE BEGINNING TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE OUTER BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO ABOUT 50E LONGITUDE. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 110130Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 110530Z CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 110530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 41 KTS AT 110600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: INITIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WITH LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST NEAR TAU 20. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY WHILE UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND 160NM AT TAU 96. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A COLD-CORE STORM-FORCE MIDLATITUDE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-03-11 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
南印度洋热带风暴“菲利波”生成
时 间：11日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“菲利波”，FILIPO
中心位置：南纬20.3度、东经37.3度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉偏东方向约260公里的洋面上
变化过程：“菲利波”生成并加强到9级
预报结论：“菲利波”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月11日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 111309 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 36.5 E (TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/12 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 0 48H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95 60H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 360 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 36.0 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 85 120H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 38.5 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 155 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THIS EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY LINKED TO THE BEGINNING OF A DECREASE IN DEEP NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE 0629 ASCAT PASS AND 1131Z AMSR2 SWATH ALLOWED US TO ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 45KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST, WITH FILIPO TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AND REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. INDEED, WITH THE RAPID INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (AND THEREFORE INTENSIFY LESS) IF IT EMERGES AT A WEAKER STAGE. THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST RUNS BY GFS (RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH WEAKER INTENSITY) AND IFS (LATER TRANSITION WITH STRONGER INTENSITY). THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE, NORTH OF VILANCULOS. - WINDS: GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL AFTER LANDING, ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COASTLINE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM AND LOCALLY 300 M OVER 72 HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE AND GAZA, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN NEIGHBOURING PROVINCES. - WAVES OF 6 M BETWEEN MONDAY NOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. - EXPECTED SURGE OF AROUND 50 CM TO 1M IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.
最后于 2024-03-12 06:00:05 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 111846 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/11 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 35.9 E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0 48H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55 60H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 72H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 240 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 500 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75 120H: 2024/03/16 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 205 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.0- FILIPO HAS INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND ITS CENTER IS NOW LOCATED LESS THAN 100 KM OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEGREE OF CURVATURE OF THE CURVED BAND HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, EXCEEDING ONE COMPLETE TURN. AT THE HEAD OF THE CURVED BAND, A CONVECTIVE CORE HAS FORMED, AS DEPICTED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, BASED ON BOTH MET AND CURVED-BAND DT, IS ESTIMATED AT 4.0-. SATCON ESTIMATES FROM 14UTC ARE AROUND 60KT AND DPRINT VARIES BETWEEN 55 AND 66KT (WINDS 1MIN). THESE DIFFERENT ELEMENTS ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE AN INTENSITY OF 55KT (10MIN WINDS). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS FAIRLY LARGE (ESTIMATED AT 30 NM), MEANING THAT THE AREA AFFECTED BY VIOLENT WINDS IS SIGNIFICANT (STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND TO AROUND 80 KM FROM THE CENTER). THE CENTER IS LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER SAVE, DELIMITING THE PROVINCES OF SOFALA TO THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE TO THE SOUTH, SO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL FRINGE AND THE ONSET OF STORM FORCE WINDS IS IMMINENT. FILIPO WILL KEEP TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE LANDS AROUND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH FAIRLY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO IS THUS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS NORTH OF 32S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. INDEED, WITH RAPIDLY INCREASNG WIND SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS FAVOR A QUITE LATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ENABLED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. IT COULD THUS REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY AND THEN KEEP A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY DESPITE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT (NEAR 00UTC) OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SOUTH OF SAVE RIVER'S MOUTH AND NORTH OF VILANCULOS. - WINDS: GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL AFTER LANDFALL, ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COASTLINE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT. STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM AND LOCALLY 300 MM OVER 48 HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE AND GAZA, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN NEIGHBOURING PROVINCES. - WAVES NEAR 6 M ONGOING AND UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. - EXPECTED SURGE OF AROUND 50CM TO 1M IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
