WTIO30 FMEE 021257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 55.3 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/03 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2024/03/03 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 130

36H: 2024/03/04 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/04 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

60H: 2024/03/05 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/05 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/06 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

120H: 2024/03/07 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
***THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.***

SINCE FRIDAY, A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH, BENEFITING FROM A MONSOON FLOW SURGE AND THEN A TRADE WIND
SURGE. A CLOSED CENTER WAS IDENTIFIED ON FRIDAY MORNING NEAR 11S/68E
THANKS TO ASCAT PASSES. HOWEVER, SINCE FRIDAY EVENING, LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS SOMEHOW DETERIORATED, LEADING TO A MORE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER THAT IS NOW HARDER TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT
ESTIMATE OF 11.9S/55.3E IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. ON THE
OTHER HAND, CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED, BUT IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MORE SYMMETRICALLY THIS SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
WIND CONVERGENCES BORDERING THE MONSOON FLOW TO THE NORTH AND THE
TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
ESTABLISH AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION, BUT THIS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVES. THE 08-20232024
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, WITH
WINDS OF 20KT AND LOCAL PEAKS REACHING 25KT LIKELY IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT, CONFIRMED BY ASCAT PASSES THIS SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE CENTER AND UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS INITIAL
POSITION LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDE DISPERSION OF THE SHORT TERM TRACK
FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLIST IFS/EPS NWP SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION AROME MODEL. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS INITIALLY MOVING
WESTWARD, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE) ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE IMPACT ZONE, BEFORE EMERGING ON MONDAY OFF
THE NORTH-WESTERN MALAGASY COAST, BUT ITS DISTANCE FROM THE COAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE EASTWARD SHIFT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD STEER THE
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS. WITH THE EXPECTED SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD SHIFT UPWARD INTO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, AND THE INDUCED MOVEMENT COULD SLOW DOWN AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND WEST. A
SOUTHEASTERLY TURN IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, LINKED TO
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER SLOW AT FIRST, DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE DIFFICULTY OF CONSOLIDATING A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT
CONVECTIVE CORE, BUT ALSO TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTS LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, BUT TROPICAL STORM
STAGE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. INTENSITY IS ALSO HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (IF IT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
OFFSHORE, IT COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER). FROM TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WEAKER WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UP TO A MATURE STAGE
BY MID- TO LATE-WEEK, AS SUGGESTED BY THE EPS.
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH A SYSTEM MORE OR LESS
AFFECTED BY MALAGASY LANDS, IMPLIES A VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR
- RAINFALL: HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO GENERATE FLASH
FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES ARE FORECAST OVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS LIKELY
OVER THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA (OR EVEN 300MM OVER THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE ISLAND) AND LOCALLY OVER THE PROVINCES OF TOAMASINA AND
FIANARANTSOA (SUNDAY/MONDAY) AND MAHAJANGA (MONDAY/TUESDAY).
- WINDS: EVEN IF MTS STAGE IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, GALE FORCE
WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE (LOW PROBABILITY) ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT. AS FOR THE NORTH-WEST COAST, THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK TO
BE ABLE TO SPECIFY WIND IMPACTS.

MAYOTTE: THE MAINLY RAINY INFLUENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE
SYSTEM WILL PASS.=

WTIO30 FMEE 030643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 51.6 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/03 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95

24H: 2024/03/04 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2024/03/04 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110

48H: 2024/03/05 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2024/03/05 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/03/06 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/07 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

120H: 2024/03/08 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING, SHORTLY AFTER 15Z, CONVECTION HAS
STRENGTHENED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE DEPRESSION MINIMUM, WITH VERY COLD
SUMMIT TEMPERATURES (-81AOC), WHILE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE.
THESE CONDITIONS ALLOW A FIRST DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AROUND 00UTC
WITH A T OF 1.5. THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM COULD BE RECALIBRATED
MAINLY THANKS TO THE MOWING OF SSMIS-F17 AND F18, AT 0036Z AND 0245Z
RESPECTIVELY, WHICH SHOW A VERY SLIGHT CURVATURE ON THE 85 AND 37GHZ
IMAGES, ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LAYERS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE, A
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT AND COULD
LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE VORTEX UNTIL IT LANDS ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOR 25KT, IN LINE WITH DVORAK FMEE'S
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE, AS WELL AS THE QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF RECENT
SATELLITE DATA.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
EXCEPT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHEN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A LITTLE
QUICKER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S LANDING OVER THE PROVINCE OF
DIEGO-SUAREZ, THEN ITS TRANSIT OVERLAND. DERTERMINIST MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DISPERSION IN TERMS OF CROSS-TRACK UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN IN TERMS OF ALONG-TRACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED MAINLY ON THE EUROPEAN IFS/EPS DETERMINIST
AND ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS, AS WELL AS THE FRENCH FINE-SCALE MODEL AROME.
THIS WEAK SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SINCE
LAST NIGHT, A COURSE IT IS SET TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT
MONDAY, ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW
AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, IT SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR (DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE) IN THE
EVENING, BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE IMPACT ZONE,
BEFORE EMERGING ON MONDAY OFF THE NORTH-WESTERN MALAGASY COAST,
ALTHOUGH ITS DISTANCE FROM THE COAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, THE METEOR SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-SOUTH-WEST, THEN SOUTH,
AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
RECEDES. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE
TO TEMPORARY CONTRADICTORY FLOWS CAUSED BY THE COMPETITION OF TWO
RIDGES LOCATED ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. FINALLY, A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN
MAY BE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK, LINKED TO A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE INTENSIFICATION COULD POTENTIALLY BE
SLOWED DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE POSSIBLE DIFFICULTY OF
CONSOLIDATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, BUT ALSO TO THE PRESENCE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL CONSTRAINT (ESTIMATED AT 20KT). THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE REINFORCED BY THE MECHANICAL EFFECT OF THE TRADE
WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
LANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR AT
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY BASED ON FINE MESH MODELS SUCH AS AROME. INTENSITY IS
ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS
TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (IF IT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
OFFSHORE, IT COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER, AS RECENT AROME RUNS SEEM TO
SHOW). FROM TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, WITH WEAKER SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EFFECTIVE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM UP TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM MORE OR LESS
AFFECTED BY THE MALAGASY LANDS, IS REFLECTED IN A VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR
- RAINS: HEAVY RAINSTORMS LIKELY TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER
OF 50 TO 100MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS LIKELY OVER THE PROVINCE OF
DIEGO-SUAREZ (OR EVEN 150/200MM OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE ISLAND)
AND LOCALLY OVER THE PROVINCES OF TAMATAVE, AND FIANARANTSOA
(SUNDAY/TUESDAY) AND MAJUNGA (MONDAY/TUESDAY), WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE 100-150MM RANGE.
- WINDS: EVEN IF THE TTM STAGE IS NOT EXPLICITLY ENVISAGED, GALE
FORCE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE (LOW PROBABILITY) ON THE EAST COAST OF
DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND NEXT EVENING. FOR
THE NORTH-WEST COAST, THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS TRAJECTORY TO BE ABLE TO
SPECIFY THE WIND IMPACTS.
MAYOTTE: A MAINLY RAINY INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IS ENVISAGED, BUT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE.=

ABIO10 PGTW 030700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/030700Z-031800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 
50.9E, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030245Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 90S WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS, GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SST, OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH 
MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S 
WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE TRANSITING OVER THE NORTHERN TIP 
OF MADAGASCAR AND CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 031247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 51.0 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/04 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2024/03/04 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2024/03/05 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110

48H: 2024/03/05 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2024/03/06 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/03/06 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/07 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

120H: 2024/03/08 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NAO08-20232024 DID NOT INTENSIFY AS
EXPECTED, DUE TO A MORE PREGNANT SHEAR CONTEXT. THE LATEST CIMSS DATA
AT 09Z SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDSHEAR, MORE SO IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE. IN THE ANIMATION OF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LAYERS CAN BE SEEN SET BACK TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THE AMSR2 IMAGE AT 1045Z ILLUSTRATES THIS PERFECTLY, WITH
AN EXTENDED LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION. ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE SYSTEM IS
LEFT AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOR 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM'S LANDING OVER THE DIEGO-SUAREZ REGION. THE METEOR THEN
TRANSITS OVERLAND INTO THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ, PROBABLY EXITING
SOUTH OF NOSSY-BE. DERTERMINIST MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISPERSION IN
CROSS-TRACK TERMS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN IN ALONG-TRACK TERMS
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY
BASED ON THE EUROPEAN IFS/EPS DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS, AS
WELL AS THE FRENCH FINE-MESH AROME MODEL. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS HEADING
SOUTH-WEST, A COURSE IT SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT MONDAY,
ALONG THE NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW AND
MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE METEOR SHOULD BEGIN A
SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, THEN SOUTHWARDS, AS THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY RECEDES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO
TEMPORARY CONTRADICTORY FLOWS CAUSED BY COMPETITION FROM TWO RIDGES
ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. FINALLY, A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN IS ENVISAGED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THIS IS LOGICALLY EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE MALAGASY MAINLAND, DUE TO THE HIGH ALTITUDE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE RELIEF, WHICH HINDERS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PHENOMENON ALSO REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE, IT COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER,
AS RECENT AROMA RUNS SEEM TO SHOW). FROM TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WEAKER SHEAR, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MORE EFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UP TO THE
MINIMUM STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TRAJECTORY FORECAST, WITH THE SYSTEM MORE OR LESS AFFECTED BY THE
MALAGASY LANDS, IS REFLECTED IN A VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR
- RAINS: HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE NORTH OF DIREGO-SUAREZ
PROVINCE AND ON THE COAST OF TAMATAVE PROVINCE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 50 AND 100MM. AS THE SYSTEM RE-ENTERS THE CHANNEL TOMORROW,
HEAVY RAINS WILL FALL MAINLY OVER MAJUNGA PROVINCE, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO 50MM ON THE COAST UNTIL TUESDAY AND BETWEEN 50
AND 100MM BY WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS: FRESH BREEZE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ
PROVINCE AT THE END OF THE DAY, AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. FOR THE
NORTH-WEST COAST, THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS TRAJECTORY TO BE ABLE TO
SPECIFY THE WIND IMPACTS.
- MAYOTTE: A MAINLY RAINY INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE.=

WTIO30 FMEE 031841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 50.4 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/04 06 UTC: 13.7 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2024/03/04 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2024/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/05 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/06 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/03/06 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/07 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/03/08 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08-20232024 HAS
MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING OFFSET
TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHOSE LOCATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR, CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE MALAGASY PROVINCE OF DIEGO SUAREZ.
IN THE SYSTEM'S VICINITY, HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE
NORTH-EASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25KT,
CONFIRMED BY A PARTIAL EVENING ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM'S FAR
EASTERN PERIPHERY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR'S NORTHERN TIP
BY AN ALREADY POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY THE RE-FORMING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
MAKES THE FORECAST RATHER UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CENTER
SHOULD EMERGE AROUND OOUTC ON THE WEST COAST OF DIEGO SUAREZ PROVINCE
NEAR NOSY BE. IT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWARDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. BY
MID-WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO TEMPORARY
CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS CAUSED BY COMPETITION FROM TWO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN IS
THEN EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OFF THE NORTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR, ITS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON
HOW CLOSE IT IS TO THE MALAGASY COAST AND HOW QUICKLY THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION RE-FORMS (IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE, IT
COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER). FROM TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WEAKER SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MORE EFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UP TO TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE SYSTEM MORE OR
LESS AFFECTED BY THE MALAGASY LANDS, IS REFLECTED IN A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OVER DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE AND THE
COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 100 AND
200MM IN 24HRS LOCALLY. FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT, HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO 100 TO 200MM IN 48 HOURS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.

- MAYOTTE: HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY EARLY MORNING HOURS (UP TO 100-150MM).=

WTIO30 FMEE 040036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 48.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/04 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2024/03/05 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2024/03/05 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/06 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/06 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85

72H: 2024/03/07 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/08 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/03/09 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08-20232024 MADE LANDFALL JUST
BEFORE 20UTC NEAR VOHEMAR (DIEGO SUAREZ PROVINCE), THEN REFORMED ON
THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, EMERGING OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR NOSY BE AROUND 23UTC. THE POSITION OF THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPLEMENTED BY THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. A DISCONTINUOUS CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM. IT REMAINS ESTIMATED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25KT.

THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
TUESDAY, ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, LEADING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN A LITTLE
DUE TO TEMPORARY CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS CAUSED BY COMPETITION
FROM TWO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. A SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED AROUND FRIDAY, BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
OVER SOUTH AFRICA COULD MORE OR LESS SLOW THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WEAK UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AND DUE TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM WATERS, WITH WEAKER WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MORE EFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY ON ITS
NORTHERN SIDE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
UP TO TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, NWP GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON HOW FAR
THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD GO, SO THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OVER DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE AND THE
COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 100 AND
200MM IN 24HRS LOCALLY. FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT, HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO 100 TO 200MM IN 48 HOURS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, POSSIBLE 100MM TOTALS OVER TOLIARA
PROVINCE'S COARST.

- MAYOTTE: HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY EARLY MORNING HOURS.=

WTIO30 FMEE 040631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 46.1 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/04 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2024/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2024/03/05 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2024/03/06 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

60H: 2024/03/06 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/03/07 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/08 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/03/09 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE 08-20232024 SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO
REORGANIZE ON REACHING THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MAINLY DUE TO A LACK
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OR
REALLY CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BACK TO A ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER STAGE, WITH WINDS AROUND 20KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IT'S DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY A CENTER OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, AS THE GUIDANCE IS VERY SCATTERED AND THE STEERING FLOWS
NOT VERY WELL ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER, THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
SOUTH-WESTERLY UNTIL TUESDAY, ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS,
ALLOWING A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO SLOW SLIGHTLY DUE TO TEMPORARY CONFLICTING FLOWS BETWEEN TWO
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN IS
THEN ENVISAGED AROUND FRIDAY, BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS ENCIRCLING THE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTH. ON SATURDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH AFRICA SHOULD AGAIN SLOW ITS MOVEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BOTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WHEN IT WILL DEPEND ON DIFFERENT STEERING FLOWS
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AVAILABLE, CLOSER TO AROME AND
GFS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WEAK UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AND MODERATE
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH SHEAR BECOMING WEAKER,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE BECOMING MORE
EFFECTIVE, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
INTENSIFICATION TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. GUIDANCE ON THE EXTENT
OF THIS INTENSIFICATION IS, HOWEVER, VERY SCATTERED, RESULTING IN A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR: HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
THE SOUTH OF MAJUNGA PROVINCE AND THE NORTH OF TULEAR PROVINCE.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM IN 72 HOURS.

RSMC HAS TEMPORARILY STOPPED MONITORING THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON
TROPICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE). THE SYSTEM MAY BE MONITORED AGAIN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK IN THE EVENT OF RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S 
40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
EUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 
1007 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION. AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 
95.3E, 90 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1527Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AREAS OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 091007Z 
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17-22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP 
NEAR 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL 
STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 100650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2024/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 39.9 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/10 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2024/03/11 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95

36H: 2024/03/11 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/03/12 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

120H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER BEING STRONGLY AFFECTED BY SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK,
WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OFTEN EXPOSED, SYSTEM 08-20232024 IS NOW
BEGINNING TO BENEFIT FROM MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS TO ITS
DEVELOPMENT THIS SUNDAY, WITH GRADUAL DECREASING EFFECTS OF WIND
SHEAR. SINCE LAST NIGHT, CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE CENTER'S IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THIS SUNDAY MORNING, A SHORT CURVED
BAND IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION IS STILL PARTLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR LINKED TO REMNANT WEAK TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR.
WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.0 BASED ON THE MET AND A
CURVED BAND DT WRAPPING BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.4, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH WINDS OF 25KT. HOWEVER, A
PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 0557Z, ARRIVING TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT, SHOWS THAT 30KT WINDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN A LARGE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT
TERM, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD TURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE, WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
SYSTEM OVER SOME PARTS OF THE LAND OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, BUT THIS
PORTION OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE ALTITUDE OF THE STEERING
FLOW (A HIGHER INTENSITY WOULD ENABLE A MORE MERIDIAN TRACK ALONG THE
COAST, WHILE A LOWER INTENSITY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PENETRATE
MORE DEEPLY INLAND). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ENABLING IT TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS SUNDAY, DESPITE
SOME SHEAR STRESS STILL PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN THIS SHEAR
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY ON MONDAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME
EXCELLENT, WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE, AND THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS VERY HIGH. INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW AT FIRST ON SUNDAY, THEN MORE RAPID FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE COULD BE REACHED THIS SUNDAY EVENING,
BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE ON TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED AS A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CONVECTIVE CORE
CONSOLIDATES. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES
SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IFS SUGGESTS A
RAPID RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND ON
WATERS THAT REMAIN WARM NORTH OF 30S, WHILE THE AMERICAN MODEL
SUGGESTS WEAKER INTENSIFICATION. ON THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY,
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
THE SYSTEM'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF
SOFALA PROVINCE AND INHAMBANE PROVINCE.
- WINDS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, AND MAY LAST WELL AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST (STILL
UNCERTAIN, TO BE SPECIFIED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MORE OR LESS
INLAND) AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE
COUNTRY. POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE AREA
OF LANDFALL.
- RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH OF
BEIRA AND NORTH OF MAPUTO, WITH MAXIMUM ACTIVITY OVER INHAMBANE
PROVINCE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING
TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100
MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=