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WTXS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 35.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 35.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.6S 34.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.1S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.1S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 27.5S 35.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 32.9S 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 37.0S 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 35.5E. 11MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6S 35.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FILIPO) INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AS IT IS CURRENTLY STEERED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. A 111234Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THOUGH THE LOWER-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS REVEALED IN THE 37GHZ BAND IS LESS ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT EVENTUALLY TURNS EQUATORWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 111430Z COWVR 33GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DETERMINED USING AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW, HEDGED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 1400Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 111500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S (FILIPO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 12. WHILE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE COMING BACK OUT OVER LAND AROUND TAU 36. TC FILIPO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) BETWEEN TAU 16 AND 18 BEFORE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BEFORE BECOMING ENTIRELY EXTRATROPICAL NO LATER THAN TAU 96, BUT MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO TAU 72. IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TIME BEFORE LANDFALL, SO A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINT. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER, IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RECONSOLIDATE AND REINTENSIFY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW, BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY ROBUST OUTFLOW INTO A 180 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UP TO A PEAK OF AT LEAST 65KTS BEFORE EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ABOVE 50 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL QUICKLY SHEAR THE SYSTEM APART AS IT UNDERGOES ETT. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 17S WILL TRAVEL OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 150 NM BY TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, AS THE HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND HAFS ALL INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY AT OR ABOVE 70 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 60-72, SKEWING THE JTWC CONSENSUS A BIT HIGHER DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS, ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-12 04:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 120037 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 35.5 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/12 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0 36H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100 48H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55 60H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 315 SW: 325 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 405 SW: 360 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 85 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.0- THE WESTERN EDGE OF FILIPO'S LARGE INTENSE CORE IS NOW OVER THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHILE ITS ESTIMATED BAROMETRIC CENTER IS LESS THAN 50 KM OFFSHORE. ASCAT PASSES AT 1857Z AND 1945Z HAVE ENABLED TO LOCATE THE 18UTC POINT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, INDICATING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT, WHICH SLIGHTLY DELAYS LANDFALL. IN ADDITION, THESE ASCAT WIND MEASUREMENTS ARE COMPATIBLE WITH THE ASSESSED SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FINALLY, THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AT 18UTC WAS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, CLOSER TO 35 NM THAN 30 NM. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS DEFINED AS THE PERIPHERAL BANDS INTERACT WITH MOZAMBIQUE'S INLAND AREA. NEVERTHELESS, INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER, TENDING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH PART OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 00UTC, POSSIBLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED BY INERTIA AT 55KT, BUT STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S ASYMMETRY. THESE VIOLENT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTH OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, CLOSE TO BAZARUTO ISLAND AND INHASSORO DISTRICT. FILIPO WILL KEEP TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE LANDS THIS TUESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING SOUTH-EAST AND ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER A LANDFALL EXPECTED AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, FILIPO WILL TYPICALLY LOSE INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE INLAND AREA, BUT ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP FAIRLY WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S LOW TERRAIN. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM WATERS NORTH OF 32S. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT EMERGES OVER SEA. WITH RAPIDLY INCREASNG WIND SHEAR FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS FAVOR A QUITE LATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ENABLED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. IT COULD THUS REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY AND THEN KEEP A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY DESPITE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE: - LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY AROUND 03UTC OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SOUTH OF SAVE RIVER'S MOUTH AND NORTH OF VILANCULOS, PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF THE TOWN OF INHASSORO. - WINDS: GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL AFTER LANDFALL, ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COASTLINE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THE SYSTEM'S EXIT. STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. - RAINFALL: 100-200 MM OVER 48 HOURS OVER THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE AND GAZA, THEN MAPUTO. LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA (INHAMBANE PROVINCE). - WAVES NEAR 6 M UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. - STORM SURGE FROM 50CM TO 1M IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM INHASSORO TO VILANKULO. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 MM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“菲利波”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：12日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“菲利波”，FILIPO
中心位置：南纬21.1度、东经35.5度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：989百帕
参考位置：莫桑比克伊尼扬巴内省东北方向约60公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“菲利波”由8级加强到11级
预报结论：“菲利波”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，并将在莫桑比克伊尼扬巴内省东北部沿海登陆，登陆后逐渐转向偏南方向移动，强度有所减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月12日08时15分）
图2 台风路径图像（北京时间2024年03月12日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 120646 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 35.1 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/12 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 55 36H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 48H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 60H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.3 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=/ THE FILIPO LANDED SHORTLY AFTER 03UTC, OVER THE NORTH OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, AND MORE PRECISELY NORTH OF THE TOWN OF INHASSORO, AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE SYSTEM'S INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE'S INLAND AREA TEMPORARILY DELAMINATED THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN, AS SHOWN BY THE ANIMATIONS OF CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE PASS AT 0409Z. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STRENGTHENED OVERLAND CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE QUALITY OF THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, AS WELL AS ON ANALYSES OF THE MAIN GUIDANCES. THE 45KT INTENSITY IS ALSO IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS LANDED, STRONG AND POSSIBLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS REMAIN CHANNELED ALONG THE PROVINCE OF INHAMBANE. NO CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY REGARDING FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE ON TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FILIPO, WHICH HAS ONLY RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN AFRICA, WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S SHALLOW RELIEF. AS FILIPO EXITS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY OFF THE COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFRT ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER COASTAL WATERS PARTICULARLY WARM NORTH OF 30AOS. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYER DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.THIS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL STRESS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHILE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. HOWEVER, AS THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, FILIPO COULD PUNCTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY HEAVILY SHEARED CONTEXT, AS IT TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FILIPO SHOULD ADOPT AN INCREASINGLY ASSYMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A THINNER WARM CORE, AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED INLAND AREA IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS : MOZAMBIQUE : - WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE TODAY, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND MAPUTO PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL: 100-150 MM IN 48 HOURS OVER THE PROVINCES OF INHAMBANE, GAZA AND MAPUTO. - WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH, UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. - PROBABLE SURGE BETWEEN 100 AND 150 CM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN INHASSORO AND VILANCULOS, POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE SUBMERSION, SOUTH OF VILANCULOS. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EAST OF SOUTH AFRICA : - HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRAJECTORY. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 34.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 34.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.3S 34.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.5S 34.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 28.0S 36.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 30.7S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 36.1S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 39.4S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 34.7E. 12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.5S 34.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 298 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FILIPO) MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN 120000Z AND 120600Z. TC 17S HAS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, DUE TO THE MID- LATITUDE JET MAX SOUTH OF THE LLCC, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (70-90 PCT) RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND A METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGE OF 120600Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS DPRINT: 47 KTS AT 120600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 WHEN IT BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE PROPAGATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TRACK SPEED AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET TO ITS SOUTH. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN TO 45 KTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A JET MAXIMA TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO HIGH (ABOVE 30 KTS) LEVELS AND THE SST BEGINS TO COOL. DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE JET MAXIMA TO THE SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR 140000Z. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 150600Z, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 160600Z. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 155 NM AT TAU 72 AND DIVERGING ONLY SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. ALONG- TRACK SPREAD IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 250 NM AT TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS INDICATED BY A RISE OF INTENSITY FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48 WITH AN INTENSITY SPREAD OF 25 KTS BETWEEN GFS ON THE LOW END AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM BASED) ON THE HIGH END NEAR TAU 48, TIGHTENING THEREAFTER TO TAU 96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72 - 96 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72 - 96 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“菲利波”在伊尼扬巴内省登陆
时 间：12日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“菲利波”，FILIPO
中心位置：南纬21.8度、东经35.1度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：伊尼扬巴内省境内
变化过程： “菲利波”于12日上午11：00左右（莫桑比克当地时间12日早晨05：00左右）在伊尼扬巴内省最北端附近沿海登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力有9级（23米/秒，热带风暴级）。
预报结论：“菲利波”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度继续减弱。
图1 FY2H卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年03月12日14时00分）
图2 台风路径图像（北京时间2024年03月12日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 121332 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 34.2 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/13 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100 36H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 48H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 215 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 215 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 72H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 405 SW: 250 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=/ SINCE THE LANDFALL THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN INHAMBANE PROVINCE, FILIPO HAS NATURALLY WEAKENED OVER THE MOZAMBICAN INLANDS, BUT WITHOUT LOSING ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE. THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER REMAINS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, WHOSE TOPS WARMED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS, FILIPO IS STILL GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARITIME BORDER OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND MODEL ANALYSES, FILIPO'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 40KT. NO CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY REGARDING FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREA OF MOZAMBIQUE ON TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERLAND FILIPO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE AREA'S SHALLOW RELIEF. AS FILIPO EXITS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY OFF THE COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFRT ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER COASTAL WATERS PARTICULARLY WARM NORTH OF 30AOS. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYER DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.THIS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL STRESS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHILE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. HOWEVER, AS THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, FILIPO COULD PUNCTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY HEAVILY SHEARED CONTEXT, AS IT TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FILIPO SHOULD ADOPT AN INCREASINGLY ASSYMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A THINNER WARM CORE, AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES. FROM SATURDAY, FILIPO IS SET TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION. MOZAMBIQUE: - WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND INHAMBANE PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. - RAINFALL: 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (GAZA, INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H NEAR THE CITY OF MAPUTO. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF AROUND 4 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, AT GAZA PROVINCE LEVEL. - RESIDUAL SURGE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 CM SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN INHASSORO AND VILANCULOS. ESWATINI AND EXTREME EAST SOUTH AFRICA: - HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRAJECTORY. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=
最后于 2024-03-13 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 121903 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20232024 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/12 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 33.7 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/13 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 65 24H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 280 SW: 390 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 48H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 215 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75 72H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 400 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 260 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/16 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 215 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ON TUESDAY, FILIPO CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER MOZAMBIQUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RARE NEAR THE CENTER, WITH SUMMITS WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF THIS, FILIPO IS STILL GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARITIME FRINGE OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE. IN VIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND MODEL ANALYSES, FILIPO'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 35KT. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FORECAST FOR FILIPO'S TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE THAT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WILL TAKE IT INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OVER AFRICA, FILIPO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD HOLD UP WELL THANKS TO THE COUNTRY'S LOW RELIEF. AS FILIPO EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, PROBABLY OFF THE COAST OF GAZA PROVINCE, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AND THE EFFECT OF SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH COULD REACH 65KT ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY SHEAR CONTEXT, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, FILIPO SHOULD DEFINITIVELY ADOPT AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE CONFIGURATION. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE : - WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG GAZA AND INHAMBANE PROVINCES, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. - RAINFALL: 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (GAZA, INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO), LOC 150 MM/24H NEAR THE CITY OF MAPUTO. IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. - WAVES OF AROUND 4 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, AT GAZA PROVINCE LEVEL. SOUTH AFRICA: -HEAVY RAIN OF 100 TO 150 MM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL. -DANGEROUS SEAS OVER NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL. ESWATINI AND NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL): - HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE BUT STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 24.5S 33.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 33.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.6S 33.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 29.1S 35.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 31.7S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.6S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 39.2S 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 33.8E. 12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 1002 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.5S 33.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 379 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: -- FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FILIPO) ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND SITUATED OVER LAND AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS MOIST DESPITE BEING OVER LAND AND DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF OF THE EASTERN AFRICAN CONTINENT. DESPITE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE OVER LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE VORTEX WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 121637Z IMAGE REVEALING A LLCC AS THE SYSTEM WITH DEFLATING DEEP LAYER CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DETERMINED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AS WELL AS THE DPRINT AND DMINT ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM XIA XIA, MOZAMBIQUE HAVE BEEN SHOWING WINDS BETWEEN 20-33 KNOTS (10-MINUTE) OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 17S IS NOW ASSESSED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE UNDERGOING A BRIEF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) BEFORE CONTINUING TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, COMMENCING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NO LATER TAU 60. ONCE TC 17S MOVES BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RECONSOLIDATE STRONG VORTEX, AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TO A PEAK OF AT LEAST 65 KTS AS A JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH ENHANCES OUTFLOW SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TAU 18-24. VWS INCREASES TO APPROXIMATELY 40KTS AT TAU 36, SHEARING APART THE VORTEX AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 50KTS BY THE COMPLETION OF ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 60. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION OVER COOL 25C SSTS AROUND TAU 60, FURTHER ENCOURAGING ETT AND WEAKENING STORM INTENSITY. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS WELL-CONSTRAINED, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME VARIANCE IN THE PEAK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH COAMPS-TC PEAKING AT 75KTS BY TAU 36 WHILE THE CONSENSUS PEAKS AT 60KTS BY TAU 48. THE MODELS SEEM TO ASSESS DIFFERENTING IMPACTS OF THE VWS AND THE POSITIVE OUTFLOW VALUES SUPPORTED BY THE JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT STRIKES A BALANCE BETWEEN ELEVATED VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-13 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 130054 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20232024 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO) 2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 33.2 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/13 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 120 24H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 36H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 360 SW: 390 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 295 NW: 260 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 120 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 455 NW: 400 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 315 NW: 325 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 165 NW: 155 60H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 530 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 380 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 240 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75 72H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 220 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE XAI XAI STATION HAVE CONFIRMED THE ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD SOON EMERGE INTO THE SEA. BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND MODEL ANALYSES, FILIPO'S INTENSITY REMAINS STATIONARY AT 35KT. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FORECAST FOR FILIPO'S TRACK. THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AS IT EMERGES SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE THIS MORNING, TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF XAI-XAI, INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY, IN A CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AND OVER WARM COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF 30S. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION DURING THIS OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS THE EFFECT OF SHEAR ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THIS EVENING ONWARDS, WHILE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ITS EFFECT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH COULD REACH 65KT ON THURSDAY, IN A FAIRLY SHEAR CONTEXT, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS, THEN MAINTAIN SUSTAINED INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, FILIPO IS SET TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MOZAMBIQUE : - WINDS: PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE PROVINCES OF GAZA AND INHAMBANE, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. - RAINFALL: 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN MAPUTO PROVINCE. IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. - WAVES OF AROUND 4 M OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE SLIDING SOUTH DURING THE DAY, AT GAZA PROVINCE LEVEL. SOUTH AFRICA: -HEAVY RAIN OF 100 TO 150 MM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL. -DANGEROUS SEAS OVER NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL. ESWATINI AND NORTHEASTERN KWAZULU-NATAL): - HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE BUT STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 100 MM.
