全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 130644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 33.1 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/13 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 130

24H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 270

72H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, FILIPO HAS RE-EMERGED OVER SEA JUST EAST OF
MAPUTO. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A CENTER A FEW NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF THE
ISLAND OF INHACA AT 06UTC. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY RESUMED, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ALLOWING A DVORAK ESTIMATE WITH A CURVED
BAND CONFIGURATION AT 2.0. FILIPO IS NOW A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS OF 35KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE
DIVERGENT. FILIPO IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THEN ACCELERATING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NOW BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A CONTEXT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE BANGS OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.WIND SHEAR IS
SET TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT FILIPO'S RAPID DISPLACEMENT MEANS
IT COULD BE OVERTAKEN BY WIND SHEAR.IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE
STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A PEAK AROUND
THURSDAY 12UTC, WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED.IFS
SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING, WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE SOFTER.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
GUIDELINES.
THEN, FROM THURSDAY EVENING, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN ITS POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER COLDER WATERS IN A CISIAL CONTEXT, GRADUALLY LOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE (MAPUTO PROVINCE):
- RAIN: 50 TO 100MM TODAY, THEN IMPROVING.
- SEA: WAVES OF 4 TO 5M IN THE MORNING, THEN CLEARLY IMPROVING DURING
THE DAY.

EAST ESWATINI :
- RAINS: 50 TO 100MM TODAY THEN IMPROVING.

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA (NORTH OF KWAZULU-NATAL):
- RAINS: AROUND 100MM TODAY THEN IMPROVING.
- SEA: WAVES OF 4 TO 5M, THEN CLEARLY IMPROVING IN THE EVENING.=

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 33.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 33.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 28.2S 34.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 30.9S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 33.9S 43.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 36.5S 49.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 40.3S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 33.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.0S 33.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 451 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL 
CYCLONE (TC) 17S (FILIPO) TRACKING OFFSHORE NEAR MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, 
AND RETURNING TO OPEN WATER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS OBSERVED IN A 130600Z 
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED CHARACTERIZED BY PROMINENT CIRRUS 
FILAMENTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 17S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-
28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI REVEALING AN OBSERVABLE LLCC. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETRY DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 130600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 130600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
EAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE STR PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND INCREASE 
TRACK SPEED AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH. NEAR TAU 24, TC 17S 
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. AFTER A SUSTAINED SUBTROPICAL PERIOD (TAU 36 TO 
TAU 60) HAVING FEATURES OF BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS, 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 
72. THE FORECASTED RISE TO PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KTS AT TAU 24 IS 
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INCREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT CAUSED BY THE TC 
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE JET. FOLLOWING A 
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO TAU 24, VWS IS ANTICIPATED TO SHARPLY 
RISE AND INITIATE AN INTENSITY DOWNTREND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 50 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 AND A 90
NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AS SUCH, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARD. PEAK INTENSITY
RANGES FROM 55 TO 75 KTS WITH COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM BASED) BEING AT THE
HIGH END AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL (GFS BASED) AT THE LOW END. THE 
JTWC INTENSITY PEAK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS AT 65 
KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 131240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 155


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0


OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, FILIPO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS,
AWAY FROM INHABITED LAND. DESPITE ITS RETURN TO WARM WATERS AND A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES, CONVECTION
- ESSENTIALLY LINKED TO A CONVERGENCE OF WINDS BETWEEN THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANNELED BY THE AFRICAN COAST -
REMAINS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ACTION OF UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 06UTC) ACCENTUATES THIS SYSTEM
ASYMMETRY, PUSHING CONVECTION BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ASCAT PASSES AT 0645 AND 0730Z CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF 35KT WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO REMAINS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35KT WINDS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND NOT VERY
DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THEN ACCELERATING ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NOW BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A CONTEXT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE BANGS OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR IS
SET TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT FILIPO'S RAPID DISPLACEMENT MEANS
IT COULD BE OVERTAKEN BY WIND SHEAR. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY
IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 12UTC, CLOSE TO 60-65KT, BUT CURRENT
FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT
THE SAME TIME (THE SCENARIO OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY AT 12UTC IS NO LONGER FORECAST, BUT IS NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT). INDEED, AS FILIPO MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS AND
SHEAR CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA (NORTH KWAZULU-NATAL) :
- RAINS: 50-100MM STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING THEN IMPROVING NEXT
NIGHT.=

WTIO30 FMEE 131832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 35.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SW: 360 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.3 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85

60H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION INITIALLY CONTAINED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BY THE EFFECT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES HAS
GRADUALLY FADED AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
NOCTURNAL CYCLE, HOWEVER, IT SEEMS TO HAVE GRADUALLY RESUMED. THE
SUCCESSION OF THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR-2 FROM 1118Z,
SSMIS-F18 FROM 1416Z AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 1615Z) SHOW A VERY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCALIZED IN THE
SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, NO DOUBT DUE TO A NORTHERLY SHEAR GIVEN FOR
20KT BY CIMSS. INDEED, IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES THAT FILIPO IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE DVORAK METHOD IS LIMITED; IT IS
THEREFORE BASED ON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF SATCON AND DMINT/DPRINT AS
WELL AS MODEL ANALYSES, SUGGESTING MEAN WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT.

SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, FILIPO HAS BEEN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARDS,
ACCELERATING ITS COURSE AND MOVING AWAY FROM INHABITED LAND. THAT
SAID, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS
STABLE AND NOT VERY DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY, AND IT SHOULD EVACUATE
DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING ON THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ABOUT THE EFFECT OF
SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, BUT
FILIPO'S RAPID MOVEMENT COULD ENABLE IT TO ESCAPE. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 12UTC, CLOSE TO
60-65KT, BUT CURRENT FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT THE SAME TIME (THE SCENARIO OF
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY AT 12UTC
IS NO LONGER FORECAST, BUT IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT). IN FACT,
FILIPO'S MOVE INTO COLDER WATERS AND SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
CAUSE IT TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING
ONWARDS. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE
AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA :
- RAIN: 50-100MM STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, THEN IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.=

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 28.2S 35.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 35.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 30.9S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 34.0S 44.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 36.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS IT APPROACHED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
UNDER THE STRONG JET WINDS. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM 
POLEWARD. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 140020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 415 SW: 425 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 205

60H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 215 SW: 350 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 260


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACTIVITY REMAINS
WEAK AND UNMARKED, SUBJECT TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF FILIPO. THIS CONTEXT IS BEGINNING TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSE
TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX. THE 1953Z
ASCAT-C CONFIRMS AN ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LAYER PATTERN, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS SPEED OF 40KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTORS.
THE COMPLETE MICROWAVE SWATHS OF METOP-A AND B SUPERIMPOSED ON THE
LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. SUPPORTED BY THIS SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, OBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA (SATCON / DPRINT / DMINT) ARGUE IN
FAVOR OF MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A BAROCLINIC CONTEXT
INCREASINGLY MARKED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD,
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS, FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH
INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRICAL SURFACE WINDS AND AN
INCREASINGLY THIN UPPER-AIR WARM CORE. FILIPO COULD REACH THE STAGE
OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT
FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT
THE SAME TIME. IN FACT, FILIPO'S TRANSIT OVER LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND A SHARPLY RISING SHEAR CONTEXT SHOULD RAPIDLY CAUSE IT TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY. ON THE EVE OF THE
WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 140648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.3 S / 38.9 E
(THIRTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 600 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 415 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SW: 445 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 400 SW: 445 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 110 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 260



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT, BUT
REMAINS WEAK. FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON
THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
CENTER IS STILL CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS FROM
DMSP-F18 AT 0131Z AND SSMIS FROM DMSP-F18 AT 0341Z. PHASE DIAGRAMS
AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM'S HOT CORE HAS
ADOPTED AN ASYMMETRICAL, SHALLOW STRUCTURE, CONFIRMING A BAROCLINIC
TRANSITION. FILIPO HAS THEREFORE LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND HAS JUST BECOME A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A CURVED
BAND HAS FORMED ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY, SHOWING A NEW ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM BY
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ITS INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED AND THAT ITS MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS ARE REACHING 60KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=