全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 141247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.9 E
(THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 26 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 530 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 405 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 480 SW: 435 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 195 SW: 405 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 295

60H: 2024/03/17 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 360


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING AND
REMAINS LOW. A CENTER CAN BE LOCATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS WEBSITE, FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FILIPO HAS LOST ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO PHASE DIAGRAMS AND IS CURRENTLY
AT THE STAGE OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MOREOVER, AMSU
MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE DOES NOT EXCEED THE HEIGHT OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 0709Z MEASURED WINDS
OF 75KT, CONFIRMING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTEGRATION VIA THE TALWEG AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. WE THEREFORE
USE THIS VALUE AS THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE
DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO GENERATES A CYCLONIC SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AMSTERDAM COAST, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M AND UP TO 12M IN MAXIMUM
HEIGHT.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报：吕心艳  签发：董林  2024 年 03 月 15 日 10 时 

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